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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter V who wrote (13237)	8/28/1998 2:17:00 PM
From: chester lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Peter, WHile I can't comment on the stock, I will say that the spot price of gold is at a "X" year low (sorry I can't remember what I heard on the news this morning). The reason is speculation that Russia will be SELLING large amounts of gold to raise cash. Gold is a classic supply and demand commodity. If the Russians are increasing supply, with a constant demand, prices must fall. Thus, gold stocks will also suffer since they can't lower production cost. chester

To: Peter V who wrote (13237)	8/28/1998 2:18:00 PM
From: Kip518	Respond to of 18691

Peter, given that central banks (i.e. Russia) may have to unload gold it seems like silver might be a better hedge at the moment. A "pure play" is PAASF, now trading near low, and favorite of bear Fleckenstein (also know he's on their board). I bought some today. Having said that, however, there appears to be some trouble brewing in So. Africa. If So. African mines were to curtail production because of economic/political instability, gold could soar. Kip

To: Peter V who wrote (13237)	8/29/1998 12:29:00 PM
From: Kevin Podsiadlik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

No one is buying gold stocks, if the GOX and XAU are any indication. In the past five weeks the XAU has gone from 71 to 51 and the GOX from 51 to 33. On the market's "blow up" days the precious metal stocks have been consistently at ground zero. The US dollar is currently the strongest currency out there. That's what's hurting earnings for companies invested heavily overseas. If the dollar hadn't gotten clobbered the carnage in the market yesterday IMHO would have been a lot worse.