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To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (63543)8/28/1998 4:54:00 PM
From: Jim McMannis  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 186894
 
Ten,
RE:"As I heard before, a lot of people get burned not by the initial drop, but by the subsequent drop. Have we already seen the subsequent drop, and can we say that the worst of this latest downturn is over?"

Ususally corrections occur in 3 waves. 1 and 3 are down and 2 is up. This correction is no different....so far. We may be completing the 3 wave. Buy on dips has worked rather well up 'till now.
This time when I say there will be a time when buy and hold won't work
or buy on dips won't work I suppose some of the die hards won't come out of the woodwook. You are new, but where are the Acompora naysayers now?

With an outside shot at 7925 I think the downside is over for the short term. Longer term it really depends on the Public because most all of this jerking of the market is institutional money. In the past the public has stood pat while the institutionals have freaked. If market can hold here then the public will likely continue to send in retirement money that will have to be commited sooner or later.
Too much further down and the public could lose confidence and the market would take a lot longer to recover.
As it is we've already sustained a lot of psycological damage so do expect so major rebound to new highs in short order. That went out the door when we closed below 8211.
Clinton and the boys in Washington need to put together a plan and offer it to the Russians. Something like...if we had it to do all over again in the US...this is the way we'd do it. Unfortunately, Clinton is in a position of being incapable of leading a Boy Scout troup.
Not only is he a lame duck but is lame to boot. Anything he does will be scoped as a diversion. On the other hand, he's not going to resign and save everyone the trouble. We need a strong leader right now and we don't have one. Others will have to pick up the slack. If we can't hold here, a rate cut may be necessary.

Jim