Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (13264)	8/30/1998 12:24:00 AM
From: Don Westermeyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

I'm sure Abbey's valuation model is kept secret. Most of these valuation models never work for very long anyway. Even Cramer sound cautious these days. I hear Mr. Bull even shorted AMZN recently, a complete 180 degrees from just weeks ago. It may be as simple as comparing market earnings (as a percentage to price) with the 30 year bond. Historically whenever there has been a gap between the two there was either a market correction or bond yield change. Since the 30 yr yield has fallen the gap that was their earlier this year has probably disappeared (or not - I haven't looked recently). On that basis the market isn't all that overvalued. I guess what should be scary is that if even if a whiff of inflation ever show up the market will get beaten up pretty bad. Much of the good inflation news has been due to low oil prices. I believe that influence is mostly over, assuming Asia and company begin to recover and push demand up. And some 'experts' (I use the term loosly) are whispering deflation again - that would be just as bad for the stock market. Personally I've been pretty cautious about my stock picks recently (mostly playing companies with a cash buyout). There aren't too many stocks that have avoided the recent correction. It's funny that most of the stocks have been correcting for a couple of months and the press seems to be noticing just now.