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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave Shares who wrote (63)	8/29/1998 8:09:00 AM
From: Michael Berkel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 43080

Short Coke! They made $1.64 last year and they will earn $1.58 this year, provided their earnings will not be totally hurt by the Russia and Asia flu. In 1999 they could earn $1.75. That doesn't justify a price earnings of 50. To quote Bill Meeham, Chief Market Strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald: "History has shown that it is not a profitable investment strategy to pay 50 times future earnings for a company that is growing at 20%" and in Coke's case even a lesser percentage. Food and Beverage stocks have failed to shelter investors this summer. My next target for Coke is $50.00, which is still a steep valuation but not too crazy for a well-known brand. Happy trading, Michael

To: Dave Shares who wrote (63)	8/29/1998 8:37:00 PM
From: Dave Shares	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 43080

Weekend Analysis (I'm the one who probably needs analysis) Some stocks to look at. I have scanned these with not a lot of fundamentals, but if my database is right, they have a reasonable P/E, a market cap of over $500 million, a price of between $8 - $50, and still have support (price is above the 200 dma) I did some simple ranking, which probably doesn't mean much, but it is there anyway. You can ignore the rank and look at them as a group. I'm sure that anyone who is looking around and doing any analysis has figured out that the safe haven in the current storm seems to be utility stocks. With low interest and oil prices, this should come as no surprise. I have listed at the bottom some stocks that I scanned that would appear to have been safe havens, and may continue to be. Gee, why didn't I pick them when I was looking for steady stocks six weeks ago. Well, live and learn. I'll follow this list for a while and see how it performs. David TECHNICAL RANK 1 AT ALLTEL CORP 45.688 BUD ANHEUSER BUSCH COS INC 48.500 CTL CENTURY TEL ENTERPRISES INC 47.000 GD GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP 46.438 GLH GALLAHER GROUP PLC ADR SPONSORED 24.125 LUV SOUTHWEST AIRLS CO 19.500 NWL NEWELL CO 49.312 PVT PROVIDENT COS INC 36.625 TOL TOLL BROS INC 28.250 TECHNICAL RANK 2 CTX CENTEX CORP 39.375 UMG MEDIAONE GROUP INC 45.375 VCELA VANGUARD CELLULAR SYS INC CL A 19.625 TECHNICAL RANK 3 BOCB BUFFETS INC 13.875 BPOP POPULAR INC 30.688 CHB CHAMPION ENTERPRISES INC 25.188 DORL DORAL FINL CORP 16.125 F FORD MTR CO DEL 47.688 JLG JLG INDS INC 16.125 KIM KIMCO RLTY CORP 37.438 TCOMA TELE COMMUNICATIONS INC 34.938 TECHNICAL RANK 4 BCF BURLINGTON COAT FACTORY WHSE 22.125 BDY BINDLEY WESTN INDS INC 28.188 FAF FIRST AMERN FINL CORP CALIF 28.000 MHK MOHAWK INDS INC 28.625 RPC ROBERTS PHARMACEUTICAL CORP 17.750 WPSN WESTPOINT STEVENS INC 30.625 SAFE HAVENS (PRIMARILY UTILITIES) BSE BEC ENERGY 39.688 CMS CMS ENERGY CORP 43.375 CPL CAROLINA PWR & LT CO 42.750 DTE DTE ENERGY CO 42.688 ED CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC 47.812 MTP MONTANA PWR CO 40.312 NVP NEVADA PWR CO 24.750 OGE OGE ENERGY CORP 27.562 PCG PG&E CORP 32.875 PEG PUBLIC SVC ENTERPRISES 36.375 PPL P P & L RES INC 24.000 SBC SBC COMMUNICATIONS INC 39.625 SCG SCANA CORP 30.625 SO SOUTHERN CO 27.688 TE TECO ENERGY INC 26.812 TXU TEXAS UTILS CO 44.000 WR WESTERN RES INC 40.188

To: Dave Shares who wrote (63)	9/6/1998 8:14:00 AM
From: Dave Shares	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 43080

Previous Steady Gaining Stocks I have been posting and updating a list of stocks that had been previously posted as having made steady gains over the past twelve 25 day trading periods, in response to a request for such a list. I have been asked me to keep track of these periodically. Here is the latest update. SYMBOL ORIG ORIG CLOSE CLOSE WEEK PCT. CHANGE PCT. DATE PRICE PRICE PRICE CHANGE CHANGE FROM 8/28 9/4 WEEK ORIG AEOS 07/10 47.750 39.062 39.000 -0.062 -0.16 -8.750 -18.32 BBY 07/10 45.000 43.125 46.125 3.000 6.96 1.125 2.50 CMCSA 07/02 41.875 42.125 39.062 -3.062 -7.27 -2.812 -6.72 CMCSK 07/02 43.062 42.875 39.750 -3.125 -7.29 -3.312 -7.69 COX 07/02 47.250 44.125 47.125 3.000 6.80 -0.125 -0.26 CTL 08/07 49.375 47.000 46.000 -1.000 -2.13 -3.375 -6.84 CYCL 07/10 41.125 38.438 33.125 -5.312 -13.82 -8.000 -19.45 DRI 07/17 17.375 15.500 15.812 0.312 2.02 -1.562 -8.99 HD 07/10 48.500 42.438 38.312 -4.125 -9.72 -10.188 -21.01 LNCR 07/24 39.688 37.000 36.438 -0.562 -1.52 -3.250 -8.19 MERQ 07/02 43.750 36.500 37.375 0.875 2.40 -6.375 -14.57 OMC 06/24 49.000 52.750 46.938 -5.812 -11.02 -2.062 -4.21 PMS 08/07 45.938 41.812 41.875 0.062 0.15 -4.062 -8.84 RAD 07/10 40.500 40.938 36.812 -4.125 -10.08 -3.688 -9.10 SFSK 07/10 44.375 36.438 35.375 -1.062 -2.92 -9.000 -20.28 SKYW 07/10 29.875 24.188 17.125 -7.062 -29.20 -12.750 -42.68 TCOMA 07/02 38.375 34.938 36.125 1.188 3.40 -2.250 -5.86 UMG 07/24 45.438 45.375 43.625 -1.750 -3.86 -1.812 -3.99 Notes: This list was begun in late June. I used criteria which would have required a stock to have performed well through the October, 1997 correction, the theory being that a stock that held through that period and continued to make gains would be resilient through a subsequent correction. Anyhow, while the listed stocks above seemed to have pulled through the October, 1997 correction, they certainly have been hit hard by this correction, which I submit has been of a more significant degree than what was experienced in October, 1997. Since I believe that these tickers have a good chance of a rebound when (and if) the market stabilizes, I will only be dropping stocks from this list (SKYW) which have fallen below the 200 dma. I will continue to drop from this list as support is broken. Needless to say, the scans I am using have not selected any new stocks to add to this list for the current week. I have generally intended for this to be more of a study list than a watch list, but I would suggest watching these stocks in a rally as possible trade candidates. David