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To: Ibexx who wrote (6752)	8/29/1998 10:27:00 AM
From: Michel Bera	Respond to of 93625

Hi Ibexx, * OT * I am not surprised. Probably EW is one of the best methods to explain "afterwards" what happened. Are you familiar with the Santa Fe Institute time series (1992) competition ? Series C of the competition is $/DM exchange rate. As far as I remember, best methods (ie actual winners) need preprocessing of data from low frequency filtering (such as EMAs). There is a new 1998 competition in Zurich on other market data. But whatever those smart maths or dark crystal ball invocations, I do not like this market. We got yesterday evening a gloomy interview on LCI (a kind of french CNNfn on TV) on European markets future. Regards, MiB