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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jenna who wrote (13573)	8/29/1998 11:33:00 AM
From: j g cordes	Respond to of 120523

Lets get global analytical.. Commodity based countries have been devalued both in product pricing and currency relative to dollar. This is the essential cause underlying Russia's failure and others' failure to work debt. They were relying on pumping commodity exports at known prices, those prices failed. Those same commodity price drops have supported a consumer spending spree in America and other industrialized countries. If we hadn't had the banking crisis in this country in the late 80's which withdrew us from participating in many emerging market projects we too would find ourselves in Japans shoes. Odd how things work sometimes... Markets have to find balance, remember the yen.. like the dollar now, it went off scale on relative strength. We will drop our interest rates to lower our currency in favor of encouraging German mark bund investing which will help their Russian losses and lower outflows in other central banks. If the dollar goes down some, commodities will stabilize which will help. Banking and commodities are linked at the hip right now.. odd bed fellows. Commodity prices are the revenue of industrial lending. There will be continued cheating in all commodity pump/mining markets to get hard currency for trade... a balancing act into price equnimity. We will have to drop rates to balance commodity/currency worries. This is a political carrot. What happens with flattening to down dollar, and lower rates? Some US stimulus = continued economic strength through stimulus here balanced by consumer worries cutting back spending = flat economic growth at current good levels and a wall or worry that eventually gets market climbing shoes. Japan bites bullet, sword, whatever... once restructuring light takes place Japan markets are a gold mine and the collateral markets attract capital after write downs, after cram downs. Technology continues to leapfrog, that's the reality. Its the world's economic ARMS RACE, that's the way you have to look at it. Every country needs commercial technology to lift themselves higher. Consumers will have upgrades. I just received MUEI's flyer in the mail selling a 450mz 17" monitor, 64meg 10gighd sound cd 56kmodem computer for $1849. Suddenly my "new 200" from two years ago looks old and the cost of buying new is compelling. We are in the thick of paranoia, when opportunity is more available not less.. I'm sitting back counting the gloom and doom, as a contrarian once said...

To: Jenna who wrote (13573)	8/29/1998 2:51:00 PM
From: Jeff Jordan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

watch lists for 8/31/98 angelfire.com Jeff

To: Jenna who wrote (13573)	8/29/1998 11:12:00 PM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

OK, a front line report on consumers.. this afternoon we visited malls in Massachusetts, Connecticut and New York. They were all packed. The parking lots were just shy of Thanksgiving sales volumes. I got a guided tour of the other side of life.. spending at the malls. In particular I saw the show stores going nuts.. especially one little store that only sold Sketches, but the discounters, even Timberland were doing very well, Bass, Petermans, Gap, Limited, Sony outlets were packed with gizmo shoppers. What's very well mean in shoe stores you ask? It means each saleman handling five to ten customers and a line at each check out counter ten to twenty deep. At every store I asked how's business.. one kid rolled his eyes and said ".. are you blind!" The Just for Feet store near Nyack in the Pallisades Mall was packed and humming.. I asked if sneakers were selling well. They said they were flying out store. One small Athletic Atic in Danbury Ct. said he sold 6 thousand dollars worth of sneakers yesterday... so I'm very curious about stories saying the sports shoe is dead. Back to school is intense right now though who can say for how long... certainly through Labor Day and its going to make a welcome contribution to consumer spending stats. I know I had to make one. Anyone else venture out and have impressions similar to mine? Jim