chaz, thanking you kindly for the nice words. It is absolutely true that I take solace from history, perhaps too much. Still, the Present works a powerful form of deceit on all of us, for which, I believe, history is a powerful antitode. It's just too easy to conclude that our current circumstances are all that matters, that they are unique [as in unrelated to the past], and, yes, that this time is different. Of course, each 'this time' is different, in the sense that this precise combination of factors has never appeared before, and never will again. But there have been ungodly grim times in years gone-by. Grimmer by far, I would argue, than anything we have seen yet. We've just had some dreams come crashing down to earth, expectations that bumped into reality.
Maurice is rapidly on his way to doctoral degrees in the dismal science, as all who read him can plainly see. Now we need to add some 'color' to his finely honed mastery of the mechanics. Turns out that this capitalism stuff requires just a whole host of factors, not the least of which is a population that groks the notion of going for the gold ring. Pathetically, it just doesn't happen overnight. Look at the East Germans struggling to transition to a free market economy and damn near killing their Western cousins in the process. And the Eastern guys only had 50 years of Communist indoctrination to throw off. The Russian folks have been smothered for damn near the whole 20th Century.
Americans get very impatient with other countries who, in their opinion, just don't seem to get it. Forgetting in the process, the very ugly birthing tribulations we went through to bring about the miracle. Just tossing somebody a copy of The Wealth of Nations and saying "ready, set, go" doesn't work. We look back at the Silicon Valley now and say 'no brainer'. All you need is a few world class universities turning out way cool techno geeks with a desire to transform the way the world works. Then, stir in several billions of dollars of VC capital on Sand Hill Road in Menlo Park, and presto: Apple, HP, Sun, Intel, Cisco, Applied Materials and a few thousand others just come pouring out the other end. Not.
First, you need the infrastructure: labor laws, and intellectual property rights laws, and SEC regulation, and insurance, banking, stock markets that work, man the list just goes on and on. How about Louis Kelso? Most underrated economist out there, IMO. Louis popped into Cal Berkeley [where I was hatched] one day and said: you want employees to work like owners? Make'm owners. Now all great ideas have this in common: they're way too simple and of course Louis' notion fit the category to a tee. He created Employee Stock Ownership Plans (ESOPs) from whence derives the now 'common' notion of stock options for everybody from the Pres to the janitor. But I can tell you for sure that the traditional econ profs at Cal took one look at Kelso's suggestion and said: are you nuts? (Actually that's not true. They said: you are nuts.)
So India, Korea, even Japan, East Germany, Russia, the Latin Americas and Mexico are barely scratching the surface: it takes a lot of guts and a lot of institutional framework to let the marketplace just have at it. As all of us who own equities know only too well, that market can bite awfully hard. But as Mark Twain pointed out, 'nothing so focuses a man's consciousness as the prospect of being hanged in the morning'.
The good news for the Americans is that the learning curve for the rest of the world will be much steeper than it was for us. We are quite clearly inextricably a part of that world and it behooves us to help in every way possible. The tricky part is realizing that each nation will have to find its way through its particular brand of idiosyncrasies. We can paint the broad outline and try to set the shining example, but at the end of the day, it's up to them. And just offhand, I'd say there are some highly motivated politicians around the world who are rapidly acquiring a new sense of religion (in the economic sense). If these guys can't remember the lessons of the Weimar Republic, I'd be happy to lend them my copy.
Last historical rant, promise. Hit the hell out of the little white ball today, thanks for asking. :-) Surfer Mike |
