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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nemer who wrote (19624)	8/29/1998 12:08:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

When your dentist starts talking about stocks-- get out of them, the most dangerous bull market is the market which operates in absolute fear, a market which is interconnected and ready to see the nuclear option being exercised if monies to Russia does not flow, a market which sells gold and Siemens stock to buy DEM Bund in anticipation that German paper will be worth lot more if Russia implodes. That paper will be less worth than 1923 Wiemer Republic marks if in case what this market tries to price the worst eventualities- the game of investment like any other game is suppose to be played in calmer economic and strategic environment - one cannot price anarchy, the market levels which a anarchy ridden central Europe can reach are impossible to determine, markets need to operate if all things remain even, a macro economic and global development scenario is key to market evaluation. That is analysis can only be possible within a level playing fields when Nimitz and unfounded fears are thrusted in an equation one is at constant disadvantage, because I can see that if that problem needs to be priced in my analysis the markets have no bottom. We cannot keep a risk premium for Russia implosion half way, the death of `peace dividend' will bring new fundamentals, the ensuing arms race would take us back into era of early 80's where deficits were skyrocketing, inflation would be higher and TB's will be trading at 11% not heading towards 5%. SDI era is now behind past us and that is how we look at this market globally. Present analytical equation of strategic uncertainty is a visa into no man's land. I have been highlighting Russia from beginning of this year in my global alert as a nation which has more of strategic implications than economic implications, in case of problems we would see gold and commodities gaining new popularity, paper will loose all importance. I will also throw in a small story of a robber who stole a woman's carrying a bag full of 10 million DEM in 1923, much to her surprise in those days of hyperinflation the robber throw the marks on the street and escaped with her carrying bag. I see all this around me and as a very small analyst in this little corner of my universe get little worried as to machinations of human mind to invent stories which have far and bigger repercussions than one can imagine. The little I know I am sure even the most meanest of short in equities would not made a penny so far if market is down 20%,if you account for 28% what Uncle Sam's take from you, a short is still 8% under water if the market turns around. Every short is a long and 'short' is only for fashionable table talks, gloom and tragedy always attract attention unfortunately short discussions are centered around annihilation and death of hope like implosion of Russia, if it ever happens, humanity will be collectively be poorer, I don't give a damn to my wealth if humanity ends up in quarrels like iron curtain days or the era of two world wars. I think we have moved on and that is the only thing which keeps me so optimistic, I live with hope. This tragedy of Russia which is so much highlighted by the bears to get few points on S&P is not going to hold, I would imagine the peg of HK or China falling exports or falling imports of Japan are all forgotten. I hope as we move in the next week we may see normalcy returning to Europe..

To: Nemer who wrote (19624)	8/30/1998 4:37:00 PM
From: Lee	Respond to of 50167

Hi Nemer,..Re: Hope you and the thread enjoyed my story ....... don't know if there is a moral there or not . I always enjoy your stories. The message from the DMN story is that once everybody knows the story, it's time to change. I guess the local newspaper is as good as any everybody knowing the story gauge. Do you think that's the idea? Anyway, I'm looking at the current market as a good buying opportunity (long term holds) for companies whose fundamentals haven't changed in a US economy which is strong and healthy. So I bought more TLAB on Friday (averaging down)<VBG>. Looking to buy INTC too next week but may have missed a good entry point. Trading is limited to mostly bonds and sometimes short term longs on mo mo plays. Best, Lee Big Boomer around here close shut off all power to the house but my little laptop stayed on-line. Happens alot around here. Lose power and lose BMI signal via cable but notebook always up.