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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cage Rattler who wrote (514)	8/31/1998 4:35:00 AM
From: GUSTAVE JAEGER	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Ted, I'd recommend you to stick to the US high-tech sector. If you have cash to invest right now then the small-caps are a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for you to get such a bargain! I think the US small-caps are currently hitting an historical low with regard to their market valuations. So, It's just a matter of picking the right ones! Therefore, I think the computer software sub-sector is best: the US currently owns about 85% of the software market. Hence it's a pretty straightfoward market to track: once you've spotted an interesting niche (for example: the database mkt, the e-commerce mkt, or the Web-devlpt. tools mkt) all you have to do is looking at the Nasdaq to get the whole picture! Since overseas competition is unlikely: most if not all of your picks' competitors are likely to come out of the Silicon Valley or of MIT (Mass.) surroundings... Of course, while investing at home you will not benefit from any exchange rate increase with the dollar. Actually, you may even miss some asian currency rally once the dust has settled in Malaysia, Indonesia,... But then again, are you ready to cope with so-called crony capitalism? The companies over there are not as transparent as their US counterparts and I guess you don't want to buy in ''Potemkin'' corporations! Sure, there'll be plenty of opportunities in Asia: Hotel/vacational resorts, real estate or even telecom equipment (from mobilephones to satellite dishes) but it'll be hard to find out the survivors. As far as Europe is concerned, I'd recommend you to wait until February 1999, ie one month after the ''Euro launch'': if the D-mark weakens in the meantime (due to Russian instability) it'd mean that the heaviest component of the Euro is struggling... Regards, Gustave.