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Gold/Mining/Energy : Ensco International Inc. (ESV) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (1454)	8/30/1998 2:10:00 PM
From: ron delany	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2005

Gottfried, I came across this on the Qualcomm thread and thought it might be of interest. I agree with this guy 100%. for what that's worth. "One this thread, the following may cause me to have my head handed to me but: Chaz you wrote: >>As long as the specific stocks you hold (certainly not mutual funds where you are helpless to use your own judgement IMO) are chosen carefully, I for one have found that selling only when the fundamentals of the individual stock change or to buy a better opportunity is preferable to panic selling or wasted efforts at "timing".<< First of all, let's do away with the Catch-22 phrase, "are chosen carefully." Stocks that go up after you bought them were chosen carefully. Stocks that go down after you bought them were chosen poorly. Right? Now, about holding until fundamentals change. That is one of the biggest mistakes an investor can make. The market anticipates. It anticipates and prices in that anticipation LONG before you get the news. Let's take the drillers this past year. Their correction began in October '97 and has yet to stop. Many of the best drilling and oil service companies in the world are down 50-80% from their highs. Now here is the fun part...NOTHING, I repeat, NOTHING changed in the industry's fundamentals until April when a few companies started to "warn" investors about oil price concerns. And then it wasn't until May/June that we actually saw day rates on rigs fall. By that point, most of the stocks had lost 50% of their value. Some of the reasons to hold these stocks for the "long-term" were similar to Qualcomm. But specifically there was going to be a growing demand for oil because of population and economic growth. Oil is ALWAYS going to be used and there will eventually be a shortage. The oil industry cycle went in 10-12 year spans and we were only 2 years into the current one. There was a shortage of rigs and the lead time to make more was nearly 2 1/2 years. Most of these companies had weathered oil depressions before and now they were mean and lean and flush with cash. Blah, blah, blah. Now don't get into the fact that oil is a commodity and is cyclical and etc. Everyone knows that...but the trick was no one believed it anymore. Economic growth is cyclical too...but no one wanted to believe that until about 3 weeks ago. Chaz. Yeah, you bought Cisco. Good for you. But would you please share with me how many stocks have held up as well as Cisco until this last Thursday? Dell, GE, Intel, MSFT? Out of 8,000 + stocks, that isn't much. But you also bought Qualcomm. Hoping not to offend anyone here, QCOM has been one of the worst investments one could have made over the past 4 years (unless you traded it). From late 1995, the stock has gone NOWHERE! Why? It was overpriced in 1995 and is just now catching up with itself. How do I know? The market tells me so. And don't bother me with the perspective that the market is wrong. People make careers fighting the market and losing their shirts. Should you have continued to hold Cisco since you bought it? Now we say yes. How about in 1997 when it took it's plunge? Had I owned it, I would have sold the second it broke it's downtrend...and bought back the second it's uptrend continued. You say, that is market guess work and trickery? O.K. fine. All I can tell you is that I am here today investing with capital because I listened to what the market was telling me and I cut my losses based on what the market said. Had I held on to many of my older positions, I would have been broke. I know many others in the same boat. We have ALL been spoiled by a bull market in which tellers at Home Depot have become millionaires and it is hard to find a market commentator that doesn't say "buy the dip." The fundamentals of the world are CHANGING and the market is telling you something. This is NOT like all the other little corrections we've had. Ignore it at your own peril. Godspeed, <H>

To: Gottfried who wrote (1454)	9/9/1998 12:41:00 AM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2005

Gottfried, Its too bad there was no reason for the downward estimate revision. Oil stocks have something going for them that other sectors do not. Unpredictable events that remain unforseen till after the fact when they become obvious. Regardless of the supply demand equation here are some of the factors that will affect these oil stock prices. Iran, Iraq or some other wannabe mid east power begins testing medium range rockets. Middle eatern pipeline problems (how long do you think it will take the international terrorist to figure out that destroying an oil platform would damage the US much more than the bombing of any US building) The weather. The perception of a shortage even if these is none. American's always have to have something to worry about. OPEC might just come to terms with the over supply problem. Political instability in the Middle East After all is said and done (upgrades, downgrages) something will effect the price of oil. Its the history of the thing. Looking back a number of years, has there ever been a time when crude prices remained at a constant level for more than a few months at a time? When crude prices fall there is utter despair and analysts say things like "there is no fundamental reason for oil prices to rise" and when crude prices rise they say things like, " There is no reason to believe that we will ever see 12 dollar a barrel oil again" My suggestion is to ignore the analysts and pay attention to the history of the thing. Good Luck to all.........Jerome