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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (25608)	8/29/1998 2:56:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

I concur completely. I was lazy last night and just now got around to updating my charts and unless this is the "when everyone is bearish" contrarian indicator, have converted. <gg> I have been noticing that too many stocks were holding their trend channels justifying it as only the weak companies were falling, then some of the "good" companies started getting hit and I said it was only because they were throwing the baby out with the bath water (though I was all cash weeks ago). Today I noticed just about everyone is tanking except for the "street favorites like you mentioned and they are finally showing weakness. Just minutes before reading your post, I was e-mailing my buddy inquiring if we had big enough ones to load our garages with puts on MSFT, DELL and IBM. I am waiting for his answer as I type this. I see companies with 60% growth at 40 PEs now and others with 30% growth with a PE of under 9 and they still aren't worth buying because they are falling like rocks. They haven't bounced once much less double or triple bottomed. I concur we haven't seen the bottom yet and there may or may not be a bounce in between. Jerry Favors thinks we will get a squeeze the shorts type temporary rally but I can't imagine what would spark such an event from the FA side. We are just starting to approach earnings warning season, Japan is at new lows, Germany is starting to fall, and Russia won't be doing anything soon unless they find mattresses stuffed with billions in US currency behind the local Salvation Army. I haven't seen enough fear yet to see a relief rally. I got a ton of e-mail last night and PMs here at SI from people wanting to know if this is a good time to buy back in and to be honest, I was trying to figure out which index calls to buy if we do indeed get a 2 day bounce before the next leg down. I know deep inside that the only way to be right now is short or in puts but 10 years of bull market habits make us all want to try to get that last uptick to prove there is still hope. The hope is waning fast. As you stated, If your long, your wrong. Lee

To: bobby beara who wrote (25608)	8/29/1998 4:20:00 PM
From: BubbaFred	Respond to of 94695

The majority can be right some of the time, but not all the time. No one can be wrong or right all the time. My timing, which is usually off by 3 to 4 weeks, is now off by 4 months. So, I was wrong 3 months ago, and looks like I am not going to be 100% wrong. Besides, isn't time for the forever bullish Abby Cohen to join the mere mortals Granville and Elaine G? I don't think she is stock market Goddess, do you?