To: llamaphlegm who wrote (15188 ) 8/30/1998 8:17:00 AM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Respond to of 164684
FOCUS-Taiwan tech stocks seen hanging tough Reuters Story - August 30, 1998 04:33 %TW %DPR %EMRG %ELI %ELC %US %RESF %RES 2330.TW 2303.TW 2357.TW 2306.TW 2324.TW 2356.TW CPQ DELL HWP 2342.TW SIEG.F V%REUTER P%RTR By William Ide TAIPEI, Aug 30 (Reuters) - Taiwan's high-technology industry, most of which is cutting 1998 profit forecasts to cope with slowing global demand and Asia's recession, stands bloodied but unbowed, and is still spoiling for a fight. "Taiwan hasn't really fallen. It's actually on an upturn," said Georgiant Ho, senior analyst at Taipei's Polaris Securities. Though Asia's financial woes are likely to batter Taiwan's 1998 economic growth to just 5.3 percent, its lowest since 1985 and 1.5 percentage points below 1997 growth, analysts are quick to point out that the slowdown doesn't necessarily mean the high-tech industry will grind to a halt. "The worst has already passed," said Connor Liu, an electronics analyst at Jardine Fleming. Dozens of technology firms have pared their 1998 targets and most have scaled back what had been ambitious capital investment programmes, but few major firms -- whether makers of computers or electronic components or microchips -- appear likely to take anything near a fatal blow. Analysts say top blue chip Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp -- the world's leading integrated circuit "foundry," where specialised logic chips are made to custom order -- is on track to turn T$19.4 billion (US$55.7 million) in profit in 1998, up from T$17.96 billion in 1997, with earnings per share of about T$3.24 against a year-earlier T$4.4. Rival foundry United Microelectronics slashed its 1998 pretax forecast by 49 percent to T$5.442 billion. It had 1997 net profits of T$9.740 billion. Asustek Computer Inc , a world-leading computer motherboard maker, said its first-half net profit soared a year-on-year 105 percent to T$4.72 billion. Personal computer giant Acer Inc , its stock down 70 percent from a July 1997 peak, has cut its 1998 profit forecast by 36 percent to T$3.5 billion -- but holds out hope for a resurgent second half. Acer blames a global glut of memory chips like those produced by its profitless semiconductor unit and a worldwide shift to cheap, low-margin PCs. But it says that it hopes that memory prices have hit bottom and its own low-end PCs are selling briskly. Taiwan is known for high-quality but anonymous production of systems that are sold under major western and Japanese brands -- and the best of these "original equipment manufacturers" (OEM) should weather the slowdown with flying colours, analysts said. "Competition is going to get more intense over the next few years and positioning will become increasingly important," said Polaris's Ho. OEM powerhouses like Compal Electronic Inc and Inventec Corp are among the best examples, said analyst Wang Chih-min of Core Pacific Securities. Inventec, which makes notebook computers for U.S. giant Compaq Computer Corp , got slightly more than halfway to its 1998 pretax profit goal of T$4.4 billion in the slack first half. With a better second half, Wang said, Inventec should come out looking good. Compal, who makes notebooks for Compaq rivals Dell Computer and Hewlett-Packard , also had a smooth first half, achieving 68 percent of its full-year pretax target of T$3.9 billion, Wang said. With the peak season still ahead, Wang expects Compal to boost its profit forecast toward T$4.6 billion. Even in the hard-hit market for dynamic random-access memory chips, or DRAM, some battered makers are finally seeing daylight -- particularly those allied with overseas technology leaders. Mosel Vitelic Inc slashed its 1998 profit forecast to T$275 million from T$2.033 billion but will avert a loss due to an alliance with Germany's Siemens AG , which relies on their ProMOS joint venture for its most advanced DRAM supplies. "Close relationships with overseas firms have helped Mosel to cut back its losses," Wang said. Ho said any improvement in the integrated circuit (IC) industry's share performance would lift the wider technology sector, the Taiwan stock market's hypersensitive core. "Fifty percent of Taiwan's capital is in the electronics sector. If IC players are gloomy, then others will be gloomy too," Ho said. Taiwan tech firms also have strong financial advantages. Despite having to finance huge capital expansions to keep pace with one of the world's fastest-moving technologies, local chipmakers -- like most Taiwan firms -- have comfortingly low debt levels, said Matt Cleary, senior analyst at ABN AMRO. Cleary noted that debt-to-equity ratios at Taiwan microchip firms tend to run no higher than 40-50 percent, far below the 200-plus percent levels at major South Korean rivals. "It's relatively difficult to kill off a Taiwan semiconductor company," Cleary said. Analysts expect Taiwan's technology companies to have turned the corner by the end of 1999, but that for the time being the sector will have to slog on with lower-than-expected earnings. .