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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CGarcia who wrote (31866)	8/29/1998 8:43:00 PM
From: Elwood P. Dowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

RUSSIA VOWS NO RETREAT ON ECONOMY................................... washingtonpost.com wusatv9.com

To: CGarcia who wrote (31866)	8/29/1998 10:40:00 PM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

Compaq stock will be selling for in January, 2000? my guess - mid-40's after a split in late 99 (i.e. 90's) My question - where will Dell be at that time?

To: CGarcia who wrote (31866)	8/30/1998 8:13:00 AM
From: Geoff Nunn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

CGarcia - Unlike CPQ bulls I predict the price of CPQ in Jan. 2000 will be less than its price today. I base this on the survivorship principle. In a competitive industry firms that experience higher costs than their rivals are not in the long run apt to survive. CPQ's problem is that it, along with IBM and HWP, is a high cost manufacturer of commercial PCs. I am aware of no evidence to suggest this is about to change. In fact the situation may become worse, depending upon how much difficulty CPQ encounters in absorbing DEC. But even if that high-risk acquisition goes smoothly, CPQ is likely to continue to face a severe cost disadvantage vis a vis Dell. The daunting problem CPQ faces with Dell can only get worse. The problem is Dell's continuing, rapacious growth, and further downward pressure on PC prices. What is to prevent Dell from continuing to grow at 50% per year? Dell has become a big enough player that now when it grows at 50%, its rivals will experience pain like never before. The global pc market is growing at only about 15% percent per year. Dell can grow at 50% because new business gravitates to the low cost producer. Simple mathematics suggests a shrinking market for everyone else including CPQ. Commercial PC manufacturers (excluding Dell) have long faced what Business Week called "profitless prosperity." Given that CPQ, HP and IBM figure to continue losing market share, and are already losing money on PCs, why shouldn't we expect their profitless prosperity to continue? Regards, Geoff

To: CGarcia who wrote (31866)	8/30/1998 8:40:00 PM
From: DWW II	Respond to of 97611

CGarcia, I agree with Geoff Nunn. I held HWP for 18 months believing with all my heart that HWP would turn around. If the mean time DELL doubled in size, and I just sat there and watched it. I'm looking for an out with CPQ and then I am going to put ALL my money into DELL. Measured by dollars, I now own about as much DELL as I do CPQ. I only invested 1/2 as much in DELL at the time of both investments. I'm tired of fighting it. DELL will be my retirement. The DELL with it. DWW II