To: signist who wrote (10488 ) 8/30/1998 1:11:00 AM From: PaperChase Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42804
Signist, I have lived thru many manic bubbles and crashes. And I have been stung by liars, scam companies, etc thru the years and have learned the patterns and lessons from each one. When Abbey Cohen and others were calling for 10,000 DOW by year-end, I had something to compare it to, like when analysts were on TV in the early 1980's telling the world gold prices would soon go to $2000 within a couple of years. A manic bubble is a manic bubble whether it is in stocks, commodities, real estate, or tulips. Investors today have something available to them (if they seek it out) that wasn't freely available in the late 1960' and early 1970's when I was learning to invest. And that is information. Information about companies and the markets they serve, information about investing techniques and risks , information about what other investors are thinking (eg. Silicon Investor), etc. A balanced portfolio doesn't mean being long 15 companies. It means being in cash, stocks, and bonds and it means, from time-to-time buying put contracts to insure one's investments at manic tops in the market, especially while fundamentals are deteriorating. Fundamentals, relative to stock prices, are deteriorating and this was made known late last year. As a well-known investor once told me, small investors often underperform the pros (which shouldn't be the case!) because they play the market only one-way. To give you an example of my "pain", I recently bought many put contracts at $25 and $30 strikes on ADCT after it just reported a 20% increase in revenues and earnings last week with a 30 cent quarterly EPS. It broke my heart to have to insure my long investment but my losses were contained when ADCT later collapsed to $24. And I will close out those puts in a moments notice of a rally. Good luck to you and your trades.