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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DD™ who wrote (7349)	8/30/1998 12:43:00 PM
From: Jim S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

To say that one should overlook the possibility of a bear market during declining interest rates may, in hindsight, be the Achilles heel in Brinkers timing model. 2D: I distinctly remember several weeks ago when Bob was making a point of explaining that his model was unable to differentiate between an "intermediate correction" and a true bear; what he was saying then was that if the market declined to the "intermediate" level (which now appears to be defined as a drop of >10%), that he would consider it as a signal to sell. The fear of the bear back then was strong enough to provide that advance warning. At about that same time, he was also talking about the market reaching new highs "by the fall." "Fall" later slipped to "end of the winter." Yesterday, the schedule slipped to "next year." Even more significantly, if my listening to yesterday's program was correct, the objective for "next year" is not a new high, but only that people who buy now will be "very happy." I certainly can't criticize the man for not having a perfect crystal ball; he does a much better job than most. But, his ridicule of people who disagree with him may come back to haunt him. And, it concerns me a bit that he may be wavering a tad in his conviction that the bull is intact. He's been so derisive of others that a turnaround (flip-flop, anyone?) now would seriously damage his credibility. I do admire him for showing up this weekend, though. I know it was a tough show for him to do. good trading, jim

To: DD™ who wrote (7349)	8/30/1998 1:22:00 PM
From: stock bull	Respond to of 42834

Double D, re: <<I too noticed a hint of reticence in Commander Bob's voice today. He seemed to be blindsided by the activities on the markets this past week, if only in vocal tone.>> I think the events that may have blindsided Bob are the foreign problems all coming together at the same time our corporate earnings are slowing down, and the Clinton situation coming to a head. The foreign events include Japan's inability to come up with a viable recovery plan, Russia "tanking", problems spreading to South America and the other emerging markets. <<To say that one should overlook the possibility of a bear market during declining interest rates may, in hindsight, be the Achilles heel in Brinkers timing model.>> You are right. I suspect the model fails in the situation where investor's perceive that corporate earnings decline at a greater rate than interest rates fall. The net effect is that an investor will earn more in bonds. Any comments on how you think this will all work out, and when? Stock Bull