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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (25659)	8/30/1998 3:35:00 AM
From: Death Sphincter	Respond to of 94695

allright comon Jim.......... your $5,000 challenge.... DOW 9,000 before 8,000....put your money where your mouth is.......buy it now big time.... your scared shitless.....put your $$$up now..... I'm short term long with stops remove your clothing and trade in the nude the nudist

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (25659)	8/30/1998 7:43:00 AM
From: Philipp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Thursday was certainly a bad day for the market, definitely confirming that we are in bear market. The crash signal I saw was not confirmed on Friday; only 1.5 % down, above the psychologically important 8000 level. But the two failed rally attempts and headlines like "Dow in worst week ever" (CNN) and similar over the weekend don't bode well. We may still get another rally attempt (how many failed rallies did we have so far?), but any bad news (hurricane in Fiji? or more likely Japan, Hong Kong) could now trigger an immediate collapse of the market, as early as Monday, but who says that it always has to be a Monday? Jim: I agree with LG that it is not the bears' fault that this bubble developed and is about to burst. I also agree with you that any bear like in 29 or Japan would be bad for everyone and that a significant crash could itself cause a self-fulfilling worsening of the economic picture. I am still mildly optimistic that the Dow will end above 7000 at the end of the year, though I don't think anyone really knows how much it can fall before that (I think anything between 4000 and 6000 is reasonable). At 7000 the market is still overvalued by historical standards, but not as excessively, in particular if the economy will still be doing well. By the way, I get the impression that people have stopped taking Ms Cohen seriously. She sounds like a broken record. 7 to 10 % undervalued??? Either she is not very smart or she is forced to say it against her own convictions (I suspect the latter, she would not have gotten where she is otherwise). LG: I am always annoyed by programs that don't have semi-log plots. In fact I am appalled when I see that even financial papers, QUOTE.COM use linear plots to show the development of the market. Anyone with a middle-school education should know how meaningless linear plots are for growth/decay processes. Good trading to all. Cheers, Phil