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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (19637)	8/30/1998 11:19:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

OJ-- Look at this report I just don't see that big affect in the economic numbers we are getting- firstunion.com Durable Orders (July) Underlying Domestic Demand In Manufacturing Appears To Be Strong August 26, 1998 Recent reports have suggested that the manufacturing sector is experiencing a sharp slowdown and may enter a period of outright decline. These assessments are largely based on sinking Asian demand for U.S. exports. It may be a bit premature to write off manufacturing activity, as strength in private domestic demand seems to be offsetting a good chunk of the declines in manufactured goods for export. New orders for durable goods jumped 2.4% in July following a 0.2% rise in June. The July strength in new orders was somewhat surprising given that the GM strike had an enormous impact on motor vehicle manufacturing activity during the month and probably distorted the orders and shipments data. New orders for transportation equipment managed to rise 0.3% in spite of the strike, as rising orders for aircraft and parts offset declines in the motor vehicle industry. Excluding transportation, new orders surged an even stronger 3% in July on top of a 2.4% gain in June, representing the seventh increase in the last eight months. A 12% surge in orders for electronic and other electrical equipment was largely responsible for the strength in new orders. This sector includes semiconductors and electrical transformers. The industrial machinery sector experienced a 2% gain in orders following a 1.7% increase in June. New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a future gauge of capital equipment spending, fell 1.5% in July suggesting that some slowing may be occurring. We, however, need to keep in mind that monthly durable orders data is volatile and there may have been some pullback as a result of UAW strikes. The drop also followed a robust 3% rise in June and the trend remains firmly positive. Private domestic demand is supporting economic activity and rising durable orders growth supports an expanding manufacturing sector. Veronika White, Economist (215) 786-2026 or e-mail to veronika.white@capmark.funb.com

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (19637)	8/30/1998 11:23:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

You have built your case on consumer confidence. Please look at this report-see the lofty levels for me it is a blessing in disguise to see the confidence inching slightly lower-- firstunion.com On employment look at these charts and you will find the deflation which is being dangled only exists in the minds of people, it is just not thier- firstunion.com Also keep an eye on this chart-NAPM firstunion.com You bet that deflation and recessions just don't appear out of blue, we will be looking at some interesting numbers on Monday and I assure you that the numbers for atleast next three months will not include any of this recent falls, imagine if bonds by next week realise that interest rate cut already built on short end was premature and it may be tightening before easing, do you realise what is going to happen to all these sky high bonds yields -- just with all due respect a contrary opinion from a opptunistic bull.I wish I could see what you are telling me in these charts I follow.. I would rather be wrong but would keep the same analysis procedure intact which has helped me guide thru much more rougher times, this is special we are not seeing snap back rallies and it here that onc needs full macro application, if basic data shows me problem I assure you that I will try my best to get out of this market, I only check my valuations on 6 monthly basis since June 30 I have not really looked into it but now that you have reminded me I will certainly look at it.

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (19637)	9/1/1998 2:34:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

What was happening behind the scenes--Why was Druckenmilller selling so were all the hedge funds were they not suppose to be long DOW-- no read on-- my feel is fwiw only-- If anyone has a problem in buying a stock at these levels like CSCO INTC MSFT IBM CA COMS TXN, a more riskier strategy to own these stocks cxould be to sell like 45 puts of TXN or even lower and buy 50 calls but you should only sell number of puts which you can get delivery off. I would think it is good to start with a position on DDX 110 calls Dec or 210 SOX calls Dec-- BKX also looks good, but sometime I have made my best money on extremely sold off worth less markets, I am big time short at 1010 but what I care is that this market does not belong to here.Just put very little but do average a little here don't wait for signals to emerge. You can also after buying the stock sell some covered calls like 15% out.The calls premiums are extremely high. Never start buying on opening let the market settle, also watch out for this TA thing to recover today if you need to be too conservative.., it does not look good as far as TA goes the only thing to recover some damage would be to see our 500 1600 1000 8000 back-- however the world is not going to crash and consumption is not going to be affected if amrket recovers some grounds here, which I expect it to do, it had to be Nikkei break tonight that was the presumption that we broke thru the 998 level on our way down it was being rumored that peg could be taken out the hedge funds came in big time like Druckenmiller who was long DOW sold big time according to unconfirmed rumros he saw his chance to get the peg where some of thme are big time short-- it is not about the economy it also not about slowdown it is about Funds who are in a mess in HSI, they are after the peg, they gave the cue no one came to short HK big time as Nikkei held up well, my two cents worth..These guys need to cover and cover big time.. This is what is behind the scenes..