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Gold/Mining/Energy : coastal caribbean (cco@) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: aknahow who wrote (533)	9/1/1998 2:03:00 AM
From: Edwin S. Fujinaka	Respond to of 4686

George,...I think the August 12th PR Release is more than a rehash of old information. I just belatedly received two copies of the news release from different sources. I think the significant point is that the 619 million barrel St George Island prospect may be only a small part of the total potential for recoverable oil on the CCO leases. The Michigan Case from 1991 that I mentioned before only contained an estimated 10.8 million barrels and a Michigan Court awarded Miller Bros. Oil & Gas Co. $90 million . Regardless of how that case turned out on appeal, I think that CCO has a shot at winning an "effective taking" condemnation case. Based only on the St George Island prospect the CCO case would be worth: 619 divided by 10.8 times $90 million = $5.158 billion This works out to about $75/share for CCO stock. Of course I don't really expect anything like this to result, but it is clear that it is possible to come up with big numbers based on real estimates. Based on the August 12th press release, the Company feels that there is much more oil potential from some of the other prospects on the CCO leases. Perhaps my factor of ten for the remainder of the CCO leases beyond the St George Prospect is in the ballpark. Any numbers that anyone can conjure up are truly mind boggling no matter how you make the calculation. In fact, it is hard to come up with any objective calculation that only results in the $12 range that seems to be the most common guess for the value of the CCO shares. My fanciful calculation of $345 billion in my last note resulted in a valuation of around $5000/share if a lawsuit awarded the treble punitive damages <G>. Granted that these are absurd numbers. I've asked Phil Ware what the Company would take to sell the leases and he has never answered. I suppose he doesn't even know himself at this point. I think the potential size of the appraisal number is causing the State to fight an official ruling that they have "taken" the leases under their power of eminent domain. I think it is irresponsible for the State Officials to expose the people of Florida to a final legal judgement with a formal appraisal of valuation. The State should negotiate a settlement or let the Company drill. I'd like to see anyone else's calculated estimate for the value of the CCO leases. My numbers always seem to go off the top of the scale no matter how I slice it. I just seem to get a stunned silence....<G>