Peabody PFE Analyst Update: 8/30/98
Approximately 34 analysts actively follow PFE. Click here for a summary of their current PFE ratings. quicken.excite.com
Some general observations about analysts:
1. The vast majority of analysts are overly optimistic. When was the last time you saw a broker issue a "Sell" rating?
2. Analysts who have investment banking links to a company are almost always biased to the upside.
3. A "Hold" rating from an analyst with investment banking tie is a very negative sign.
4. A "Hold", "Neutral" or "Market Perform" rating usually means "I believe there are much better stocks" available.
5. Analysts will generally support their previous positions regardless of the facts or market conditions.
Recommended reading for more information on interpreting analysts' reports:
"Guerrilla Investing" by Peter Siris. shop.barnesandnoble.com
The current opinions, 12 month target PFE prices and "quotable quotes" from 22 PFE analysts are highlighted below.
Have PFun!
BigKNY3
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Strong Buy/Outperform
Broker: Gruntal & Co.
Analyst: David F. Saks
PFE Rating: Strong Buy
Target Price: $148
Peabody Rating: "The most bullish PFE analyst"
Comments:
8/26/98 PFE@107: "PFE is my favorite Big Pharma company. It is much more than a one product company...PFE has done it, is doing it, and will do it in the future."
7/24/98 PFE@111 5/8: " PFE made it clear that they are a powerhouse marketer and going to get stronger".
7/10/98 PFE@115 5/8: "Viagra sales will approach $1 billion this year and possibly $8 billion at peak (2005).... PFE just blew us out of the water. And we haven't seen the impact yet of the international market where Viagra won't be sold for several months..The long-term outlook for PFE is among the best in the drug group..We rank PFE among the "best of the best" global pharmaceutical firms."
5/18/98PFE @110 «: Upgraded PFE to Strong Buy from Buy with a target price of $136.
Broker: Schroder & Co.
Analyst: Jami Rubin
PFE Rating: Outperform
Target Price: $130
Comments:
8/14/98 PFE @101 3/16: "When offering a level of efficacy comparable to leading NSAIDs, clinical data has so far demonstrated the COX-2s promise a much-improved safety profile."
1/23/98 PFE@ 78: "Given PFE's superior growth characteristics, as well as a risk and return profile more favorable than the group, PFE is on our recommended list with a $100 price target."
Broker: Morgan Stanley Dean Witter
Analyst: Paul A. Brooke
PFE Rating: Outperform
Target Price: $122
Comments:
7/16/98 PFE@117 "PFE remains a stock investors want to own, based on rising expectations from Viagra and Lipitor, the expected 1999 launch of Celebra, and the fact that the company's sustainable growth rate should remain in the 20% area."
Broker: Cowen & Company
Analyst: Unknown
PFE Rating: Strong Buy
Target Price: Unknown
Comments:
3/16/98 PFE@88 "Valuation is justified because PFE is in top tier of an industry that delivers stable, consistent growth at a rate superior to the S&P, and this rate appears sustainable even given a possible economic slowdown and/or Asian currency woes."
Broker: EVEREN Securities
Analyst: Jeffrey Kraws
PFE Rating: Outperform
Target Price: $127 (Intermediate) $135 (Long-term)
Comments:
7/27/98 PFE@113 1/2 "Given the strength of PFE's current product line, as well as prospects for a very solid pipeline going forward, we believe PFE could achieve EPS $$2.27 this year, which is ahead of street consensus of $2.12."
Buy/Attractive
Broker: Salomon Smith Barney
Analyst: Christina Heuer
PFE Rating: Buy
Target Price: $155
Peabody Rating: "The best Big Pharma analyst"
Comments:
7/27/98 PFE@114 "Viagra was just submitted in Japan; PFE expects an expedited review and reimbursement and indicated approval during 1H99 seemed reasonable...We expect Celebra to be one of the major new drug launches of 1999."
7/24/98 PFE@113 1/2 "PFE has been volatile in 2Q98 as Viagra Rxs decreased and Zeldox failed to win FDA approval. We view this as a buying opportunity."
7/03/98 PFE @107 1/2: "Zeldox is not dead yet. But the drug is in limbo until PFE discloses the results of its pow-wow with FDA. Best case: delayed 6-18 months while PFE generates additional data or re-analyzes current data. Worst case: Zeldox is never approved by FDA."
Broker: Bear Stearns
Analyst: Ricciardi/Shevick
PFE Rating: Attractive
Target Price: $125
Comments:
8/19/98 PFE@108 15/16: "At this juncture, we see no reason to change our general view on Viagra. While US new Rxs have fallen below what we thought they would bottom at 110,000 to 125,000, European approvals in the early fall are 1Q earlier than expected and an approval in Japan, the third largest market in the world, including full reimbursement, is two years earlier than expected."
8/14/98: PFE@101 3/16: " PFE's share price is still dominated by Viagra RX trends which continue to moderately decline. Upcoming positive news could include an expedited review for Celebra and a possible FDA advisory committee meeting by year-end.
7/21/98 PFE@117 15/16: "Viagra is expected to receive EU marketing authorization in 9/98."
7/10/98 PFE@ 115 5/8: "Viagra Rxs appear to be stabilizing and two year acceleration of Viagra's approval/launch in Japan, we consider to be a significant positive."
Broker: ABN-Amro
Analyst: Keeney
PFE Rating: Buy
Target Price: Unknown
Comments:
8/14/98 PFE@101 3/16: "We expect PFE to rebound from current levels, which have been reached due to the overall market downturn and continued decline in weekly Viagra Rxs. However, Viagra refills have recently climbed to a strong 75-85,000 weekly pace.... In our opinion, pending co-promotion of Celebra will soon become an additional key drive for PFE's stock price.
Broker: Aros Securities
Analyst: Tim O'Reilly
PFE Rating: Buy
Date: 7/30/98
Target Price: $130
Broker: Gerard Klauer Mattison
Analyst: Cynthia A. Beach
PFE Rating: Buy
Target Price: $140
Comments:
8/14/98 PFE@101 3/16: "We rate LLY, MRK, PFE as BUY and AHP, BMY, SGP, and WLA as HOLD... Given the large and growing size of the arthritis market, we project (Celebra and Vioxx) could achieve sales greater than $1 billion."
7/10/98 PFE@115 5/8: "PFE's robust pipeline of new products is expected to provide earnings growth well into the next decade, but much of PFE's current price is based on anticipated significant sales of Viagra."
Broker: Warburg Dillon Read Inc
Analyst: Jerome R. Brimeyer
Date: 7/10/98
PFE Rating: Buy
Target Price: $135
Broker: NationsBanc Montgomery Securities
Analyst: Leonard S. Yaffe MD
PFE Rating: Buy
Target Price: $132
Comments:
8/10/98:PFE@103 1/2: "We continue to believe that Cox-2's will eclipse the potential of other recent blockbusters including Celebra. If Celebra was filed on schedule, we note that priority review would represent upside potential of about $0.05 to our PFE model."
7/14/98 PFE@118 11/16: "With its aggressive near-term investment, impressive line of differentiated products, minimal patent exposure and strong pipeline, PFE has among the best fundamentals in the pharmaceutical industry and tremendous earnings potential."
7/10/98 PFE@ 115 5/8: "The drug of the year is Viagra, but PFE has in hand what should be next year's drug of the year (Celebra). (Earnings) were driven by Viagra, which beat our estimates by a couple of million $."
Broker: J.P. Morgan Securities
Analyst: Carl J. Seiden
PFE Rating: Buy
Target Price: $131
Comments:
8/26/98 PFE @107: "PFE is the best company in the industry based on their current product line and pipeline.Despite their high valuations, PFE and WLA are sure to deliver because of their strengths..Viagra will settle down to real sufferers. For that group, the risk benefit profile is fine.Given that 2.6 million patients are taking the drug, the number of deaths reported is not unusual at all."
8/10/98 PFE@103 1/2: "Viagra new Rxs have still not reached their trough. However, refills remain strong and were up 2%...The absolute number of Viagra Rxs are still very strong. Assuming new Rxs will stabilize at present levels and grow modestly from there and assuming refills grow to 150% (83% at present) of new Rxs, then US Viagra sales would aggregate $0.7B in 1998- still somewhat above our Viagra estimates."
7/10/98 PFE@ 115 5/8: "PFE is best in industry".
Broker: Merrill Lynch
Analyst: Steven C. Tighe
PFE Rating: Buy: Near-term and long-term
Target Price: Unknown
Comments:
7/10/98 PFE@ 115 5/8: "Viagra sales were better than expected....It is likely Celebra will receive expedited review with a launch as early as 1/99.....The company's expectation is Viagra will be introduced in 50 countries by the end of the year."
Broker: A.G. Edwards
Analyst: Kenneth R. Nover
PFE Rating: Buy
Target Price: Unknown
Comments:
7/13/98: PFE@118: "We currently recommend investors to overweight drug stocks...As the strongest large-market capitalization drug stock, we recommend PFE."
Broker: PaineWebber Inc.
Analyst: Jeffrey Chaffkin
Date: 7/10/98
PFE Rating: Attractive
Target Price: $130
Hold/Neutral/Market Perform
Broker: Credit Suisse First Boston
Analyst: Kelly
PFE Rating: Hold
Target Price: Unknown
Comments:
8/13/98 PFE@ 102 (Hold): "We are forecasting little growth for Viagra ($1.1 B in 1998 and $ 1.7B in 1999). PFE has several products with significant growth opportunities and still one of the highest valuations in the industry. Investors are likely to remain focused on Viagra in the near term which appears to have slowed in the US and faces significant issues overseas."
10/30/97PFE @71 3/4: "PFE's pipeline remains the richest in the industry. Phase II development contained 8 unidentified candidates, indicating the potential for additional products not yet discussed with the financial community."
Broker: BT/ Alex. Brown
Analyst: Barbara Ryan
PFE Rating: Market Perform
Target Price: Unknown
Comments:
7/24/98 PFE@113 1/2: "We are maintaining our rating due to the current high valuation and our uncertainty over Viagra Rx trends long-term. Our 1998 EPS estimate is $2.10.
7/10/98 PFE@ 115 5/8: "To date, we have admittedly been wrong and missed the stock, but do believe that these next couple weeks/months of Viagra Rxs will be the key focus of investors to see the sustainability of the product. If Viagra continues to perform and exceed expectations, we expect estimates to continue to rise, however, if there is a continued slowdown, investors beware."
Broker: Furman Selz
Analyst: James Flynn
PFE Rating: Hold
Target Price: Unknown
Peabody Rating: " This is the one analyst who will be interviewed if the reporter wants to write a negative Viagra story."
Comments:
8/25/98: PFE@ 106 «: "Viagra should reach $2 billion in 2,002 and that estimate is potentially high..We have always been on the more cautious side of the Viagra debate, because of all the lifestyle products that have been launched prior to Viagra."
7/10/98 PFE@ 115 5/8: "We do not recommend over-weighted PFE positions at this time given the prevalence of highly enthusiastic earnings expectations, management's more cautionary guidance, the present growth curve of Viagra and the company's already generous valuation...Third quarter Viagra sales will come in less than $100 million."
7/07/98 PFE@109 7/16: "Consider our present peak Viagra estimate of $2 billion (2002)to be potentially high".
Broker: Brown Brothers Harriman
Analyst: Michael Krensavage
Date: 7/10/98
PFE Rating: Neutral
Target Price: Unknown
Comments:
7/10/98 PFE@ 115 5/8: "The question is how much reuse will (Viagra) get.The bottom line is that it's a highly effective drug."
Broker: HKS & Co
Analyst: Hemandt Shah
PFE Rating: Neutral
Target Price: Unknown
Comments:
7/10/98 PFE@ 115 5/8: "PFE is doing well across the board.. (Viagra ) had just a phenomenal performance. Certainly, Viagra will continue to grow. The real question
is by how much."
Broker: Lehman Brothers
Analyst: Butler
PFE Rating: Neutral
Target Price: Unknown
Comments:
7/17/98 PFE@ 117 13/16: "With several blockbusters and relatively few patent expirations, PFE has become a premier pharmaceutical company, however at 46 times 1999E EPS, we feel PFE is fully valued." |
