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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (14304)	8/30/1998 1:50:00 PM
From: DaveMG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Chaz, My Hat's off to you. Now that was one NICE PICK, CSCO in 1990. I'm sure I'd never even heard of networking way back then in the DARK AGES, having become puter literate only in the last few years . And even more impressive is that you held on all this time, through that drop in 1997 from which the stock has tripled. I've owned DELL in the past, 4 splits ago, and not held it nearly long enough,psychologically unprepared to get back in. So I agree, there's obviously a lot to be said for your point about the difficulty of mkt timing. In addition, I think all of us on this thread believe Q has huge long term potential, potential similar to other famous growth stock success stories of the past. That's why we're here. People such as Mark Hulbert (sp?) who have looked at mkt timers and strategies and compared their success with long term holders have found, not surprisingly IMO, that timing is popular and fares much better when the mkt has less trend, is not in a bull phase, than when it's going to the moon. The buy and hold mantra has probably never had more religious overtones than today albeit thrown in sharp relief by recent events. The BIG question is whether or not circumstances really justify this view. JMD's argument that this "crisis" is really minor compared with the Cuban Missile crisis and others might be true, although I think not much has been said about Russia's nuclear arsenal and what things might be like with Russia in total chaos.Also, what I said is that I think we're at or approaching a crucial juncture where we're going to learn a lot of things,such as whether or not the negative psychology can be turned, and whether people will really hold through the white knuckle period, and whether fundamentals are as good as purported by some. Anyway, I think the fact that we were reaching a major top was amply telegraphed by among other things the advanced decline line. There just was not enough money coming into the mkt to support the valuations. I've been plugging murphymorris.com for a while because John Murphy and Greg Morris are about the best weather forecasters around IMO. It's hard to invest 50$ more profitably. This is the last plug. As far as "who buys the mkt anyway" goes, the answer is that we all do whether you think of it that way or not. QCOM rose to 67$ on the very day the market began to sell off. What has changed in Q's picture since that day? What is the price now? Stellar performers such as CSCO have reached their present valuations because of "the mkt" euphoria. DELL earnings are up 60% from a year ago , but it's PE/rato has almost tripled. I know this is all short term noise for you long termers, but my suspicion is that it might really be quite a while before we see these valuations again.Even the great Buffett shut down shop at some point, was it the late 60's? Furthermore I never suggested anyone sell or buy anything.I was just hoping to shed some light on where we might be and looking for feedback. davo