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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Saulamanca who wrote (15201)	8/30/1998 12:33:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Respond to of 42787

Hey, It worked!!! Thanks. Jerry Favors Analysis - Sunday, August 30, 1998 7 p.m. The Dow broke below our critical support levels of 8316 on a print basis and 8263 intraday on August 27. The Dow continued down to a low of 8011.52 on a print basis and 7951 intraday on Friday August 28. The Nasdaq on Friday closed down another 46.73 points, the equivalent of a 226 points closing decline in the Dow. For the week the Dow closed down 481 points. There are reasons to suspect we are near at least a short term low, but if so we expect it to be no more than a short term low. Our minimum downside target remains 7390.Quite frankly we believe the low will be well below 7390,but that remains our minimum downside target. There are indicators which suggest we are near at least a short term low. The 5-Day RSI closed at 13.98,into extreme oversold territory.It could move lower before the short term low but it is already into extreme oversold territory. We have found that during major declines the 5-Day RSI can fall down near 10 or so before the first short term low,but we are already down near that area. The McClellan Oscillator closed at -218,an extreme oversold reading. Stix closed at 38.11,another extreme oversold reading. However the 10-Day Open Trading Index closed at 0.96 and the simple 10-Day Trading index closed at 0.99. Now keep in mind that the Dow is down 1286 points on a closing basis from the July 17 all time closing high. But the Trading Index readings are not oversold at all,but showing neutral readings. Those trading index readings should be much higher,into oversold territory,if the Dow were near a true bottom. This causes us to seriously question whether any important low has been seen quite yet. We could see a brief rally for a few days but we do not believe any rally will last for more than a few days before we breakdown to new lows. We have 2 downside projections for this time frame. The first calls for 7693 plus or minus 172 points intraday. The second calls for 7493 plus or minus 192 points intraday.But keep in mind that our minimum target is still 7390 intraday,and that is just the minimum objective. Our bottom line is that the Dow could start a brief but strong rally attempt at almost anytime. It would not surprise us to see that rally run several hunderd points in a few days. But that rally will ultimately fail within 1 to 4 days and then begin an even stronger decline to new lows. Any rally above 8170 on a print basis in the Dow Monday will give a short term buy signal.But that signal would only remain valid as long as the Dow held above 8011.52 on a print basis,or Monday's print low,whichever is lower. Stock traders and mutual fund switchers remain short,rally or no rally. Short term traders we will want to return to the short side soon so monitor the hotline closely from here on. Jerry Favors Analysis - Sunday, August 30, 1998 7 p.m. The Dow broke below our critical support levels of 8316 on a print basis and 8263 intraday on August 27. The Dow continued down to a low of 8011.52 on a print basis and 7951 intraday on Friday August 28. The Nasdaq on Friday closed down another 46.73 points, the equivalent of a 226 points closing decline in the Dow. For the week the Dow closed down 481 points. There are reasons to suspect we are near at least a short term low, but if so we expect it to be no more than a short term low. Our minimum downside target remains 7390.Quite frankly we believe the low will be well below 7390,but that remains our minimum downside target. There are indicators which suggest we are near at least a short term low. The 5-Day RSI closed at 13.98,into extreme oversold territory.It could move lower before the short term low but it is already into extreme oversold territory. We have found that during major declines the 5-Day RSI can fall down near 10 or so before the first short term low,but we are already down near that area. The McClellan Oscillator closed at -218,an extreme oversold reading. Stix closed at 38.11,another extreme oversold reading. However the 10-Day Open Trading Index closed at 0.96 and the simple 10-Day Trading index closed at 0.99. Now keep in mind that the Dow is down 1286 points on a closing basis from the July 17 all time closing high. But the Trading Index readings are not oversold at all,but showing neutral readings. Those trading index readings should be much higher,into oversold territory,if the Dow were near a true bottom. This causes us to seriously question whether any important low has been seen quite yet. We could see a brief rally for a few days but we do not believe any rally will last for more than a few days before we breakdown to new lows. We have 2 downside projections for this time frame. The first calls for 7693 plus or minus 172 points intraday. The second calls for 7493 plus or minus 192 points intraday.But keep in mind that our minimum target is still 7390 intraday,and that is just the minimum objective. Our bottom line is that the Dow could start a brief but strong rally attempt at almost anytime. It would not surprise us to see that rally run several hunderd points in a few days. But that rally will ultimately fail within 1 to 4 days and then begin an even stronger decline to new lows. Any rally above 8170 on a print basis in the Dow Monday will give a short term buy signal.But that signal would only remain valid as long as the Dow held above 8011.52 on a print basis,or Monday's print low,whichever is lower. Stock traders and mutual fund switchers remain short,rally or no rally. Short term traders we will want to return to the short side soon so monitor the hotline closely from here on.