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Biotech / Medical : T/FIF Portfolio -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (72)	8/30/1998 10:51:00 PM
From: poodle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1073

Rick, I mean "trades" in your "paper portfolio". Theoretically, when you enter new ticker, it should be considered as "buy", right? For example, at about the time you entered CNTO I went short. I used "quotes" for both terms. This is probably not an isssue anyway. Yes, I did some money last couple weeks, but there is nothing to be proud of. BEARX made 13.5 % this week, for example. Crazy market decided to go down. I lost a lot at the beginning of the year, though. My opinion about BTRN and SIBI is hardly important. BTRN is in your field and you are essentially the best here. To see it at cash is interesting. More than possible it's an opportunity. If my memory is correct, I have traded it one time from the long side, and may do it again, if Japan holds, China doesn't tank at the end of Honng Kong Gov intervention and Russia will not continue to influence US biotechnology so dramatically. There are several problems, common for biotech that were pointed out by others elswhere. For example, AQLA also looked very cheap until patent litigation was reported. "Insiders" may try to exit by any cost and with average vol/insiders holdings ratio we know what may happen. I have no any idea about terms of Novartis and Medi agreements, when, how much etc. 12 M $ from Medi and unknown sum from Novartis look rather like kind of potential loans than reven. Potentially BTRN may face refinancing problem at the end of 1999 and I am not sure circumstances will be encouraging at that time. SIBI: you also lost me <g>. Why to deal with management that continues to support worthless technology, even a single one? "I have been a biotech investor for a long time. I have seen blanket pessimism spread over the sector before. This time is no different.... it has created huge bargains. You're popping into a variety of threads with intriguing commentary. Did someone here or in the VD thread offend you in some fashion? Hope not." Now you lost me completely, Rick.<g> From this paragraph I may conclude that mine "intriguing"??? messages on "variety" of threads ???(I follow 6 threads and only 2 of them are biotech-related) are somehow related to the correction. Did anyone offend me? Hope not, but may be I missed something? Seriously, this biotech bloodbath is irrational because it is not discriminative. But was this irrationality unpredictable? Hardly. I have not talk to anyone who believes that market is logical, for about a year. Market irrationality is common point, and you made this point many times. Biotech as a sector should go down, and there were (and still are) several obvious,very serious, reasons. Market may do anything, however, and run up would not surprise me Monday morning. Have a nice evening.