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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Rowton who wrote (13282)	8/30/1998 9:01:00 PM
From: virgil vancleave	Respond to of 18691

Not much further of a slide and we will be considered in a bear market. That looking at the averages (ie dow and nazdaq). The key things to look at will be the market internals. If new lows keep leading as decisively as they are, it won't matter what the large averages do. It would just be a matter of time before they follow. Another indicator I have been tracking is advances verse declines. It would take a 3 to one or better advancer to decline ratio before I would say the market has turned. And even then, we would need to see a follow through. I am short more than long now and plan to stay that way at least until the tide turns. I think it will be a few months anyway since we just ene=tered earnings warning season and it could get pretty bloody. Some have already been preannouncing. Every book I have read says that the bulls will still be spouting buy while we should really be selling. And have things really changed "this time". I think not and as my favorite quote goes "The more it changes, the more it stays the same." Unfortunately for the bulls, it is not inflation that will take us down this time but deflation. And it has not happenned "overnight"; it has been going on for quite some time in the commodities. what is going to hurt is if commodities do recover. Then profits will be hit unless prices at the consumer level are raised and that is truly INFLATION then. So if one then the other. Both of which will be bad for the markets. It appears that the "tulip festival" for this round may be just about over. The charts tell the story. Many are "rolling over" and falling below support. My favorite shorts for now are airlines, lhsg, pixr, sctr, and some others. The above are the ones I have positions in. just my 2 cents