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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (23615)	8/31/1998 12:10:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, and Threaders, Today we just hit a DW Spread Triple bottom at $26 as it hit a low of $25 7/8. Some could say that we will bounce off the $26 level but, IMO, if we relate this downturn with what took place in 1996 (btb, Gottfried's new orders/shipment charts, DW price, Big Bucks, John L. and Katherine analysis) we see that we are close to a bottom but not quite there yet. A price of $20 from the $54 DW high would take us down 62.96% approx. equal with same precentage down from the 1996 downturn. Gottfried, thanks for your Semi equip orders and shipments chart. Compare it with the DW Chart and you see that the upturn in AMAT's price was right when the Semi equip. orders & shipments orders, btb hit their lows, $11 ($22 presplit) July and Sept and started their rebound during the middle/last of September and Oct and exploded to $20 ($40 presplit) by December, '96. But, remember that Zacks had a low target at $15 for those who are cautious and Big Bucks range was $17-22. Big Bucks, my finger is also on the trigger. Just waiting the target to come into my range.