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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Windseye who wrote (31901)	8/30/1998 7:46:00 PM
From: Loki	Respond to of 97611

Windseye... "Bubble Bursting" The bubble has been leaking for a long time... The market has been extremely volatile and any little bit of uncertainty has shaken the market. One can say Russia was the last straw that broke the camels back. Many other straws were loaded onto the camels back in the last year, before Russia. If I were to take some people's description of a bear market, than we can say that the broader market has been in one for almost a year. It is only a few high flying stocks that have kept the indexes up. Considering most stocks and that CPQ is going through an incredible (DEC) transition it has performed above average. This is what I wrote on February 1st: - Historically P/E multiples have run ahead of earnings We might see a market correction or sideways movement while earnings catch up. - Analysts do not predict the type of increase in stocks that a margin strategy dictates - Asia will have continued affects on earnings later in 1998 - Europe could be affected by Asia 4Q and there exists a potential this could negatively influence US companies early 1999. - White House scandals creates insecurity with investors - Iraq? For 1998 and early 1999. We can now add Russia and South America. Ofcourse, if I knew the exact timing I would be up on my portfolio now instead of down. Fundamentals are still very strong for US corporations. Investor sentiment is not. As I discussed with Ibexx in January, we are now more subject to investors investing on emotion and momentum than on fundamentals. (Example of Zalesky, now on Dell Thread, stating in February that CPQ would be in the 70's/shr by June '98... Let's make some money). Expectations were out of line with reality and the fact that they were not met led to disappointment which led to fear which led to selling. Fundamentals should prevail in the long-term. Presently, the US market is vastly oversold and there is much money on the sidelines to come back in. I do not see a present long term investment vehicle that is historically better than stocks. (Interesting...gold is down) Corporations need technology to be more productive and competitive. The "regrowth" of the market depends on when stability will occur in the world markets and the US presidency. Loki