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Gold/Mining/Energy : Harken Energy Corporation (HEC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (3499)	8/30/1998 10:27:00 PM
From: Arktic	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5504

At the risk of being accused of using pom poms again, the geology in the area of the Islero #1 supports the fact that a multibillion barrel field is within the range of possibility. I'm not saying it exists. But from a probability perspective, the possible reserves can be conceptualized on a log normal curve. Basically, it is possible that no oil exists at the Islero #1. However, it is highly likely that some oil exists in the structure(s) being penetrated by the Islero #1. The probability of huge elephant sized reserves decreases exponentially as you jump each billion barrels. But the possibility of a VERY large discovery with the Islero #1 should not be summarily discarded. The curve discribing the probable range of reserves associated with the Islero #1 is log normal skewed toward the lower end of the scale with an enticing tail headed up to some fairly high values on the X-axis. Huge reserves should not be counted upon in calculating the economics of the company as of this date but this still remains a possibility on the horizon. Paul L. Craig