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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (14332)	8/30/1998 9:32:00 PM
From: limtex	Respond to of 152472

RS - What I was trying to get at is that it has appeared to me over the last week that the Russian problems although not very significant in terms of its effect on the US/Western economies was nevertheless having a really nasty effect on the markets. At the same time it didn't look like anyone other than maybe the President was going to do anything about it and even the President's room for providing help was being very limited sort of .....anything but cash. Well now it transpires that five of the EU countries that were going to join the single currency on Jan 1st (ie four months away!!!!) will not make the required criteria because of the Russian problem. I have no idea why Russia should have had this effect but it means that these five countries won't now be able to join and that being so it means that without these five the single currency will be very very thin on members albeit that those will include France and Germany. But without the five it won't be anything like worth the effort. So what is the EU to do? Well they could ease up on the criteria. Not really a very good ideea since it will further weaken the Euro. So they will have to do something about Russia. And why not its right next door to the EU. And further more this isn't something that the EU politicians can debate and procrastinate over for months. They want the Euro to get going on the agreed start date of Jan 1, 1999 and that means they've got to get their cheque books out right now and pay the Russians. No messing about here boys just pay up or face Russian chaos. Now Russian bad debts well...no-one except those who lost money really cares a hoot about.... but Russian chaos....that's a whole different thing. We really really don't want the Russians to even think about going any more nuts than they already are ...do we. So EU/US/Japan pays up and quickly. Forget about all that posturing and telling them they have to do their reform thing. Just pay up and next year do it again. Its a sort of small tax on the West to keep the Russians happy and in the meantime we can get back to normal markets. Don't expect the President to face down the Russians after Saddam Hussein has seen him off. The Russians are a couple of magnitudes tougher than Saddam and what's more they don't have his sense of humour!!!! So with a bit of luck pay the Russians and do it this week and welcome home to the bull!!!! Hopefully, L