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Strategies & Market Trends : Russian Crisis - Is it a buying opportunity? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeffrey L. Henken who wrote (45)	8/30/1998 8:59:00 PM
From: Josef Svejk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 175

Humbly report, Jeffrey, I monitor about 40 stocks regularly, and when (not if) the market recovers, I'll pick about a dozen of them to get back into. No sense in listing them, as much will change between now and then. I should clarify my stance. I've been primarily a y2k sector investor for years, and got out of it just after it peaked. Got a major hosing with one of my holdings (CMND) which made me rethink everything, and exit while I was way ahead. The fact that y2k stocks were beginning to see real hurt (besides CMND see PTUS, VIAS etc.) drew me to the conclusion that the speculative phase in y2k was over, and earnings based reality had begun to set in. The real shocker for me was the fact that spectacular earnings numbers (IMRS, COGIF, etc.) did absolutely nothing to move these stocks up, and in fact were followed by a decline. This was the biggest red flag on the sector I'd ever seen, and a clear sign of a reversal. It will be a while before I am fully invested again (over 90% in cash now), and when I do get back in, it will not be in the y2k sector, except possibly in a few companies that will already be far along on their post y2k path. I was planning to exit the market in the fall anyway, expecting a nasty tax selling season, so I'm out much earlier than I thought I'd be. I also anticipate the first of very visible y2k disasters to hit soon, since many sectors' computer programs look very far ahead (insurance, banking, etc.), and I anticipate a y2k triggered depression. Shorting is not my cup of tea, so it may be a very long time before I am a long term investor again. In the meantime I'll do a little hit and run trading with the 10% I still have in the market, just to keep me on my toes. Extremely cautious? Yes. The man who isn't a pessimist is a damned fool. --Twain. Cheers, Svejk abitare.it