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To: ftth who wrote (360)	8/30/1998 11:20:00 PM
From: Patriarch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6531

Dave, First, thanks for your perspectives. Two great things I have found regarding SI is of the exchanging of ideas and the continuing learning process one receives on the threads. I share some of your concerns and have opinions /comments on others: Cable Modems: Granted their is a lot of hype out there, but then again, in terms of shear bandwidth, I can see the buzz surrounding them. The demand is there. I believe this technology will exceed xDSL service and satellite systems to individual homes. Granted, The technical problems with cable modems, as well as xDSL, have been documented: Message 5531533 1999 may be the year the CLEC's and RBOC's finally get their xDSL act together, but cable modems already have an early lead. Note this article, with a reference to your friends at Kinetic Strategies <g>: cnn.com A comment can be made concerning sheer access. Cable is wired in approximately 44% of US households, compared to 99%+ of households with POTS. The difference, IMO, is that a good chunk of those 44% will use the cable modem for access. IMO, xDSL will primarily be used in small businesses, home networks, etc. My point being it will take a while, if not at all, for xDSL to gain general acceptance (just like ISDN?). Satellite as last mile: I assume you mean direct-broadcast satellite rather than C-band systems. For data, it was my understanding DBS systems enhanced downloading but a landline hookup is needed to upload data. (One might ask: Why go satellite if you still need you're regular hookup) In terms of video quality, DBS wins hands down, however, as you mentioned, I think they need to work on the above to get involved with Internet access. Once they do, I see DBS as an alternative, not a market leader. DBS will get their share of the market the same way it does over cable TV, by cherry-picking the most affluent, techo-savvy customers. Market research firms: I think it's safe to say these firms have a vested interest to pump the estimates their supposed to evaluate. These firms create reports for companies/investment firms on information that these entities want to hear. Not to say there completely wrong, they're just following the trend. Like other "experts", their opinions are to be taken with a grain of salt. Thanks for your insights regarding cable back-office upgrades/requirements. BTW, I think I read that external modems will be sold at retail for this Christmas season. All comments are appreciated and welcome. Regards, Pat