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Technology Stocks : IBM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: art slott who wrote (3762)	8/31/1998 3:49:00 PM
From: Arrow Hd.	Respond to of 8218

Art, some general comments not directed at anything in particular. I am discounting Abby Joseph Cohen. Remember Elaine Garzarelli (sic?) who called major market moves including, I believe, the crash of 87. She was King and Queen until she finally missed one. Abby is under a lot of pressure. She has Goldman's clients to keep calm plus Goldman wants to do an IPO. Did you see what has happened to Morgan Stanley? 97 to somewhere in the 50s. Merril down big time Friday. Not good for a major brokerage IPO who specializes in deals which tend to dry up in lousy markets. Too much hidden agenda with her right now. I believe the technicians own the market now. Fundementalists are too scared to step up to the plate and buy. You have traders and technicians working off charts. Thats why I dont see an IBM buyback until 113 or maybe in the 108 - 110 level. They are having a decent quarter but still need to buy back stock sometime to make the consensus earnings number. They have a month left to make that move. I dont think treasury operations would get really up tight until it was under 100. In major panic selling they couldnt buy enough such that it would make an immediate difference anyway. They would announce another dollar allocation for stock repurchase, start buying and hope for a sentiment switch. I see 7000 before I see 9000 again. The Dow is going to correct 20%, the street will declare we had a bear market, and then we will move sideways. I agree with another poster that IBM will be one of the initial beneficiaries of buying since it's held up reasonable well here and can generate upside momemtum more easily than a lot of other techs. So I will go out on a limb here to stimulate some discussion. I see a drop to 113, a minor rally, a drop to 108 - 110 and then lateral movement until the bear has been declared dead. All of this goes out the window in a full fledged melt down and panic and then I think the technicians quoted in Barron's over the weekend as seeing 5000 may be right. That takes IBM into the low to mid 90s. That disaster, if it happened, would probably be violent but over by the end of October.