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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (5312)	8/30/1998 10:07:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

The Peabody Report: August 30, 1998 The Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Comments are welcome and encouraged. Invest only after conducting your own research. Have PFun! BigKNY3 __________________________________________________________ Peabody Peak/Valley Status Peabody Peaks and Valleys since 1/90 (Updated 8/30/98) Message 5627778 Chart of Peabody Peaks and Valleys with Moving Averages dailystocks.net Useful PFEr Links -3 year PFE chart versus the Dow growth. control.bigcharts.com -6 Month PFE Chart with Da Bollinger Bands Playing 207.95.154.130 -5 Year PFE Price Chart http: //www.news.com/Investor/CompanyChart/0,212,0~3~2~Medical-Drugs~PFE~~~~LRG~5Y~,00.htm The Market Environment -Joe Battipaglia: Bull Market Bloodied, But Unbowed mostnewyork.com -Byron Wien: A Morgan Stanley's Expert's Take on the Market Turmoil search.nytimes.com Peabody Model Trend Prediction Based on historical PFE patterns, the Peabody Model predicts the following trend direction: A pending Peabody Peak (108.94) was reached on August 19,1998 (a modest 10.6% increase over the previous Valley). Da Model predicts that PFE has reversed with the market correction and is headed down to a predicted Valley of 97.09 within two weeks. Commentary PFE broke the Peabody Peak strike price of 108.35 for the second consecutive week resulting in the establishment of the pending Peabody Peak and the trend reversal. Since it is based primarily on historical trends and Mr. Peabody "gut-feels", the Peabody Model should always be placed in context of the market environments and anticipated news. As evidenced by the mythical Peabody Portfolio (see section below), the Peabody Model works particularly well for PFE investors with a "buy, hold, and buy more at the Valley" investing strategy. New or pfuture PFErs could consider investing 50% immediately and investing the remainder at near Peabody Valleys. ......................................PFE.........................% Chg from...............# Days .....................................Date.........Price.......Last Price (8/28/98)......From Today Last Peabody Valley: .. 8/11/98 ......98.50.......... -3.1% .....................-19 Last Peabody Peak:..... 8/19/98......108.94..........+7.2% ...................-11 Pending Forecasted Next Valley....9/14/98.....97.09..........-4.5%................ 14 Potential Valley Strike Price..............100.30.........-1.4 % Forecasted Next Peak................... 117.67............+15.8%.................. (If Model is Wrong) ______________________________________________ Peabody Short-term PForecasts Peabody Short-Term PForecast (8/23/98): PFE: 106.06, DJ: 8,534: Da Model is optimistically calling for a 10% increase in PFE this week. Seems a little high but it could happen if the bull market moves up 300 points and the EU approves Viagra. Expect a real positive week driven by followers of PFEr George Soros, news from the 8th World Meeting on Impotence, and the possible approval of Viagra in the EU . Da Gut Feel: PFE will begin the climb to the Peak with a close above 112.. Evaluation of Peabody PForecast: EU approved Viagra and Celebra has reason to celebrate, but the Russian bear resulted in a big thumbs down. Peabody PForecast Record (76 weeks): 48-28 (63%) _________________________________________________________ Peabody Short-Term PForecast (8/28/98): PFE: 101.63, DJ: 8,052: Last week showed how PFE is effected by a correcting market. Despite great news on the Celebra expedited review and the EU approval of Viagra, PFE was caught in the correcting general market (-13.8% off its high) and uneasiness about Viagra's specification and perceived safety. Da Gut Feel: PFE will once again break support at the 100 level before making a mad dash to end the third quarter. Watch for a great buying opportunity!!!!! ___________________________________________ Peabody Portfolio For only the second time in its history, the Portfolio made two purchases in a single week. Total return:........................................+60.1% PFE @ 101.63 Annualized return:...............................+60.6% % of Peabody purchases in the black... 74% (17 out of 23) The Peabody Portfolio consists of 23 PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996. To date, the Portfolio has purchased 3,900 PFE shares at an average price of $63.47 (only 2.7% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys). ________________________________________ # PFE Shares Purchased:.......... 3,900 Average Price of Purchases:....... $63.47 Total Costs: ...............................$247,550 Total Market Value:.....................$396,357 Total Potential Profit:...................$148,807 Date............#..........Purchase Purchased...Shares...Price 8/14/96:..... 200 ........$36.38 10/25/96:....200 .........$40.44 12/4/96:......200..........$41.69 12/12/96:.....200.........$40.50 12/16/96:.....200.........$40.44 12/31/96:....200..........$41.50 1/2/97:........200.........$40.94 1/28/97: ......200..........$42.38 2/28/97:.......200...........$45.69 3/24/97:.......200...........$44.88 3/27/97:.......200...........$42.81 3/31/97:........200..........$42.56 8/8/97:..........200..........$55.13 4/16/98:........200...........$97.00 4/27/98:........200...........$113.00 5/7/98:..........200...........$107.50 5/15/98:.........100..........$105.00 5/27/98 :........100 .........$101.75 7/06/98 :........100 .........$106.00 7/29/98 :........100 .........$110.50 8/05/98 :........100 .........$104.00 8/07/98 :........100 .........$102.63 8/11/98..........100..........$100.00 Total:............3,900.........$63.47 ____________________________________________ Suggested PFE Buying Levels The following suggested PFE buying levels are based on The Peabody Model. The aggressive buying price level is used in adding shares to The Peabody Portfolio. However, depending upon market conditions an immediate purchase could be made at any time: :..................$96 to $101................................. ________________________________________ PFuture Actions That Will Effect PFE Trends Viagra Rx trends:..................................... Every Monday throughout 1998 News of Viagra adverse reactions and drug interactions: ...................................Throughout 1998 8th World Meeting on Impotence Research.....August 24-28,1998 (Completed) FDA Response to Public Citizen Letter...........September 1998 Final European approval of Viagra:.................September 15, 1998 Initial reports of Viagra international sales.......September-October, 1998 Third Quarter Earnings.....................................October 14, 1998 PFE R&D Meeting........................................October 29, 1998 ACC/AHA Report on Viagra...........................December1998 FDA Approval of Celebra...............................February 24, 1999 ED news in the media: ................................Throughout 1998 Japanese approval of Viagra .........................First half, 1999 _______________________________________________ Peabody V-Files Viagra sales for the second quarter, 1998 were $411 million, the highest recorded sales for a new pharmaceutical product during its first three months on the market. Analysts estimate that Viagra will have 1998 sales of $0.952 billion, a 39.3% increase over earlier estimates. ............................................1998 Est...1998 Est ...........................................(Billions)....(Billions)..... Comments NationsBanc........................$1.100.......$0.759...... $.205B (international) Credit Suisse First Boston.....$1.100.........................$1.7B (1999) Morgan Stanley....................$1.010..........................$4.8B (2004) Alex Brown .........................$1.000.......$0.750..... $1.2B (1999) Deutsche Bank ....................$1.000 ......$0.750..... $1.75B (1999) Gerard Klauer........................$1.000......$0.300.... $2.9B (2000) Gruntal ................................$1.000......$1.000.... $8 B peak (2005) Alex Brown............................$1,000........................$1.2B (1999) Cowen...................................$0.850........................$5B+ (2002) Furman Seltz.........................$0.811........................Only $100M in 3rd Qt Bear Stearns..........................$0.800......$0.600 ......$200M in 3rd Qt Merrill Lynch...........................$0.750 .....$0625...... Consensus...........................$0.952.......$0.683 ____________ PFE Stock Splits PFE has split three times in the last ten years ( 2/91, 6/95, and 6/97). The Wayback Machine indicates that PFE usually announces a 2-1 split if PFE trade above 80 for 90 consecutive days. In the January, 1998 survey of 22 PFErs, only 43% felt that PFE will split in 1998. At the PFE Annual Meeting on April 23, 1998, the PFE CEO stated they will consider requesting additional authorized shares from shareholders later this year. Bottom line, a 3-1 PFE split announcement will be made in late 1998 or early 1999. A request for additional authorized shares was apparently not made by the Board on July 23, 1998.