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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KLINVESTOR who wrote (23640)	8/31/1998 2:12:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

kli, the current dram scam is plastered everywhere. it is funny how these analysts mention the percentage increase in dram and leave out THAT EVERYONE IS STILL LOSING MONEY ON A NET BASIS. with good news like this we will only see bankruptcies ;-) the bottom line is that dram fab capacity is being under utilized. the koreans held back inventory just like they did in 1997 - which, btw, led to and 85% decline in dram in less than 12 months when they unleashed the motherload of stored inventory. this game will end. overcapacity IS overcapacity. once profitability returns everyone will jump on the dump inventory bandwagon again and drive pricing down all the more. even if pricing went up the demand for pcs would slow as the box makers would no longer be able to drop prices low enough to entice growth. no growth = supply problems all over again. this industry has some working out to do. it will take a while and will not be accomplished through phony inventory hold backs. jmntbho :-)

To: KLINVESTOR who wrote (23640)	8/31/1998 3:10:00 AM
From: zsteve	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

KL, RE -- in the past six weeks 16 Mb PC-66 prices have risen 38% and 64Mb PC-66 prices are up 22%. you like this kind math games? sample: one apple price fell to $10 from $100 within two years, that is (10-100)/100 = -90% change (only?). now, the price goes up to $19 from $10, that is (19-10)/10 = + 90% change, and looks very good. but, if you want get $100 price again, you will need (100-10)/10 = + 900% increase. if the apple seller just break even at $100/piece, he will lose big time no matter he sell them at $19 or $10/piece!

To: KLINVESTOR who wrote (23640)	8/31/1998 9:29:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Respond to of 70976

>> As an example, this week (August 28) they point out that in the past six weeks 16 Mb PC-66 prices have risen 38% and 64Mb PC-66 prices are up 22%. While I recognize the Koreans have shut downs fabs for a week a month and Siemens closed a small UK Fab I am surprised that this strengthening DRAM market has not garnered more attention. << You answered your own question. DRAM prices are firming because of artificial supply restrictions. As long as fabs are running at 75% of capacity or less, no one's going to be buying more equipment. I'm with you regarding the price differential between AMAT and other companies in the sector. Other posters here are not. It's a debate we seem to have pretty regularly. Katherine