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To: Giraffe who wrote (17033)	8/31/1998 11:38:00 AM
From: Ahda	Respond to of 116817

There is so much logic in conclusions that the world financially is not in very good shape. Right now i wonder what will happen when we have been going down market wise and the general public is quesitioning exactly what is going ot happen to their returns. Some are going to be complacent but some are going to think lose more maybe get out and see what happens buy back at less cost. One thing we do know about people is they tend to follow not lead.

To: Giraffe who wrote (17033)	8/31/1998 11:55:00 AM
From: Enigma	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116817

Do you know who Mark Zandi is? It seems that the one thing he leaves out viz a viz the US economic expansion is the question of consumer confidence continuing through all this mahem. Of course Main Street could continue to be divorced from Wall Street - but you have to wonder. One of the first things to suffer in a severe downturn IMO would be construction on new homes, because people with investments in whatever form will feel less like going out on a limb. Too many commentators seem to think of the US as an island unto itself, and look at the effects of all this in terms of fractional reductions in GDP growth. Whether we're in the middle of a crash or a drag out like 73/4 we don't know yet. If the Fed eases and it doesn't work, and it won't for long IMO - look out. E

To: Giraffe who wrote (17033)	8/31/1998 1:27:00 PM
From: Alex	Respond to of 116817

TALK FROM THE TRENCHES: WAIT-AND-SEE AS CLINTON VISITS RUSSIA By Isobel Kennedy, Robert Ramos and Joseph Plocek ÿÿÿÿÿNEW YORK (MktNews) - The market is trading heavy this morning, taking a breather after two weeks of pandemonium. The outlook is mixed. Some view this morning's backup in rates as a buying opportunity since nothing has been resolved on the global front. Others say the only way to sustain these steamy levels is with a Fed ease. ÿÿÿÿÿThe same question the FOMC has debated all year remains: the U.S. economy remains strong yet there is global meltdown. The dichotomy will be underscored on Friday with the August nonfarm payroll data that will be released in an abbreviated trading session (2pm close). Median estimate for payrolls is 375,000, but analysts have overestimated payrolls in four of the last six Augusts. ÿÿÿÿÿOn the domestic front, as of Friday the Dow has given back almost 14% since its record close of 9337 on July 17, a massive loss of wealth. But the Treasury rally will add fuel to economic growth as it stimulates home-building and consumption. ÿÿÿÿÿDollar intervention by BOJ still looms in the background. Several days last week, Japan's Sakakibara was talking about a lower dollar and ever since Japanese accounts have been biased to the sell side on Treasurys. Maybe they know something we don't. ÿÿÿÿÿTomorrow, Yeltsin and Clinton meet in Moscow to commiserate and maybe try to solve one of the world's problems. Things might move slowly, however, as Yeltsin says "pass the vodka" and Clinton asks "got any more of these fine Cubans?" ÿÿÿÿÿSpeaking of the world's problems: HKMA did not buy stocks last night and the Hang Seng plunged 7%. Traders still worry about a possible China devaluation and spillover from Russia and Asia to South America. A lot of blood has already been spilled in emerging market debt, stock and currency markets. Can market participants take much more as they try to get through with the week's important data and still get to the Hamptons in time for those final summer bashes? ÿÿÿÿÿThere is little talk of month-end buying, or of the $5.6 billion in Treasury coupon interest that should support the market today. But no less a source than the Wall Street Journal editorial page is calling for the Fed to recognize that the international situation is dicey and deserves an ease. (Talk From the Trenches is a daily compendium of chatter from Treasury trading rooms offered as a gauge of the mood in the financial markets, and should not be confused with reporting of verifiable news events. Telephones: Isobel Kennedy and Robert Ramos (212) 509-9298; Joseph Plocek (202) 371-2121; Suzanne Cosgrove and Alyce Andres (312) 214-3336) 10:04 EDT 08/31 c 1998 Market News Service, Inc. economeister.com