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Strategies & Market Trends : Russian Crisis - Is it a buying opportunity? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Josef Svejk who wrote (70)	8/31/1998 12:24:00 PM
From: ThirdEye	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 175

I think there's another term used to describe nationalistic socialism.....let's see....I know I have it here somewhere....oh, yes......Fascism!

To: Josef Svejk who wrote (70)	8/31/1998 12:46:00 PM
From: Dimitry A. Semenov	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 175

Interesting article and I also agree with most of it. Communists might take more power and screw up things even more. However, I do not think Stalinism have any chance. For one thing young generation, myself included, detest Communists and they learned how to survive in market economy. There are also no leaders that can rule Russia with the iron hand. General Lebed tasted what its like dealing with the REAL problems of governing when he became a governor of Krasnoyarsk region where my parents live. He took a look down the financial abyss of dealing with budgets and revenues instead of paratroopers and tactical plans. The experience tamed him down quite a bit. He simply realizes that he does not have a clue what to do. He would probably support someone who he thinks is honest enough and smart enough to deal with economic problems. It is certainly the possibility (at least 50%) that the world order and the hope for world prosperity has ended as we know it, and that what is driving markets down unwinding gains of years of Great Bull market that took place exactly at the time when the hope for new world order took hold. We will see... However, West has never committed itself to REALLY helping former Soviet Union which in fact was in pretty much the same situation as Germany and Japan after the war. Many Russian would wish to declare a war on the United States (or Sweden, Finland, Germany and so on.) and surrender the next day so it can be occupied (and I am serious.)

To: Josef Svejk who wrote (70)	8/31/1998 12:52:00 PM
From: Jeffrey L. Henken	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 175

UGLY... quote.yahoo.com Can we please let this be the last day? I'm not about to go into cash now. As far as TAVA goes I'm not at all certain how low TAVA will go but I certainly agree that all support is gone now and the same is true for many stocks. It's been a few years ago when we had a scare over in Russia that made it sound as though a military faction would be taking over. Such a take over would have increased the risk of a nuclear melt down. I sold my stocks that day and have regretted it ever since. I know you are already in mainly cash but what about those of us heavily invested still? It's hard to justify unloading stocks when there are so few buyers. After all tomorrow is another day. Regards, Jeff

To: Josef Svejk who wrote (70)	9/3/1998 11:45:00 PM
From: Jeffrey L. Henken	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 175

U.S. OPTIONS/Equity put-call ratio stirs dilemma CHICAGO, Sept 3 (Reuters) - The put/call ratio in equity options jumped Thursday, causing dilemma for contrarian traders who would usually view it as bullish for stocks but have also seen big selloffs after similar readings recently. ''You're getting huge put buying, but the problem is that the market is so weak,'' said Jerry Hegarty, an analyst with Thomson Financial Services. ''The put/call ratio is too high to short (stocks) but too weak to buy.'' According to the Chicago Board Options Exchange, its equity option put/call ratio stood at about 1.16 in late morning trade. A reading near 0.5 is generally considered neutral. Jay Shartsis, director of options trading at R.F. Lafferty & Co, said the reading, combined with the very high implied volatility levels, meant the market was probably ''not so vulnerable'' to a big decline at the moment. ''It (a big selloff) probably won't happen right away,'' he said. ''I would think that the market has found a bottom (early Tuesday), and this is a retest.'' The CBOE volatility index (^VIX - news), which reflect implied volatilities for S&P 100 index (^OEX - news) options, was up 3.89 points at 44.31 at 1350 CDT/1850 GMT. Shartsis said that was a fairly big rise, considering that the S&P 500 futures were down only about 10 points and the OEX about half that. ''There's a lot of fear in the market,'' he remarked, adding that that usually was a bullish signal. Jack Callahan, an independent market-maker in the CBOE's OEX pit, agreed and noted that investors were paying up high premiums for protection. ''I think investors still want to be in the stock market, and put options help them hold the course,'' he said. He also said the high level of volume, despite the vacation season with a long weekend coming up, was reflective of the adjustments investors were making after Monday's 500-point drop in the Dow Industrial Average. Hegarty said the market was in a very choppy phase. He foresaw a rally on Friday or early next week but added that there could still be big selloffs before and/or after that. ''You have seen the hard selloff last week which climaxed Monday and then you saw two days -- or 1-3/4 days -- of rally, which is standard,'' he remarked. ''Now you're really looking at a dogfight in the next four, five days.'' Shartsis said the market would face a big test early on Friday when the monthly employment is released. If the market could shake off any bearish readings in that report, it would prove the effect of the high put/call ratio was kicking in. ''How we handle that news is a good barometer of the technical conditions, and we will find out,'' he said. Paul Foster, strategist at 1010WallStreet.com who says he does not read much into put/call ratios, noted that today's ratio was skewed partly by a big trade in AT&T Corp January 60 puts, totaling more than 13,000 contracts. biz.yahoo.com Regards, Jeff