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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: starpopper who wrote (6792)	8/31/1998 12:18:00 PM
From: Michel Bera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Starpopper on Don,, Volume on RMBS at this point is not that high for a crash, isn't it ? Just learning again, like last year. MiB

To: starpopper who wrote (6792)	8/31/1998 12:21:00 PM
From: Don Green	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>This is the top tier selloff THIS is a CRASH.. Look at the Russell 2000 ( Top Tier??? ) Wake up.. I have been trying to warn people here for a few weeks.. BE Careful.. Let the dust settle. Regards Don

To: starpopper who wrote (6792)	8/31/1998 12:21:00 PM
From: REH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

DLJ Comments this am: Important Points: 1. We remain confident that the U.S. economy will remain vibrant & we view the recent equity fire sale as a buying opportunity. Because of excessive share price weakness relative to fundamentals, we are increasing the exposure to financials, consumer cyclicals, transports and staples to the detriment of energy basics, and capital goods. 2. Consistent with our asset allocation changes, we have made several changes to the DLJ Focus List. Specifically, we have added American Online Inc.(AOL), American Express (AXP), Cambridge Technology Partners, (CATP), Chubb Corp.(CB) Centocor, Inc. (CNTO), Dayton Hudson (DH), U.S. Airways Group (U) & removed 3Com (COMS), Ace Limited (ACL), Biogen Inc. (BGEN), British Petroleum (BP), Champion International (CHA), EVI Weatherford (EVI), Praxair (PX), Reynolds Metal Corp. (RLM). 3. The August 1998 stock market was this month's worst performance on record. The average NYSE and NASDAQ stock is now down over 40% fr their 52-week highs as compared to 14% for the Dow & S&P500.The breadth & sentiment deterioration are quite comparable to the 1987 Crash with one-third of the universe down 50% or more. When stocks finally bottomed in December 1987, bearish sentiment had peaked at 45% which is not far from the 39% level recorded by Investors In Intelligence on August 25th.When updated again this week, bearish sentiment will likely come close to the all-time high. 4. We do not expect an imminent interest rate cut at least & until Japan legislates constructive bank reform and economic stimulus packages or U.S. unemployment rises sharply. Although the linkage has recently broken, our valuation work suggests that the declines in T-bill and bond yields should provide support for equities and ultimately a favorable recovery backdrop. 5. The new issue calendar is drying up.Relative to this point last year, the backlog is down roughly 20% and more than 50% from two months ago. At the same time, companies have begun to aggressively repurchase shares. Also, Vickers reports that insider buying has dramatically picked up.All totaled, we find the supply-demand conditions for equities to be very positive. 6.We expect this week that the LDP & opposition parties in Japan will structure a compromise to move forward bank reform legislation which may begin to restore investor confidence.Some comfort shld be seen that Tokyo real estate prices have stopped falling and the decline in car sales is stabilizing. 7.Our forecast for real GDP in 1999 anticipates 3.4% growth following 3.2% full year 1998 gains & only 1.7% 2H98 increases as the inventory reduction process should be completed and foreign economies become healthier. Better economic conditions and a flat or comparatively weaker dollar should combine to push S&P profits to $54 next year from $48 in 1998. As investor confidence is slowly restored, we look for the S&P 500 to melt-up to 1350 within 12 to 18 months. Accordingly, our asset mix is aggressive at 75% stocks, 20% bonds & 5% cash.