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Technology Stocks : S3 (A LONGER TERM PERSPECTIVE) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Michael who wrote (11879)8/31/1998 6:29:00 PM
From: Bert Kuo  Respond to of 14577
 
OEM deals have materialized. Just not what we were hoping for. We hoped for what--Dell, GW, CPQ, IBM, etc... what we got are some no-name/small-name taiwan companies such as A-Trend, MSI, etc... Hercules is around, but still don't see the Beast widely available. Plus, Hercules just got bought by ELSA, so who knows what is going to happen to that product line...



To: Michael who wrote (11879)9/1/1998 6:20:00 AM
From: Don Earl  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 14577
 
Hi Michael,

With the Dow down 512, the NASDAQ down 140 and declines out numbering advances 7 to 1, you really can't call it anything other than a market reaction. The lemmings decided to go swimming again. Unlike the traditional lemmings that only go swimming every seven years, Wall Street lemmings head for the cliffs about every 9 months. Contrary to the popular belief that we have been in a bull market for 8 years, what we're seeing is extremely short cycles that affect the whole market and bull/bear markets that shift from sector to sector.

What you are seeing is a stock market crash. I don't see how the Dow dropping nearly 1000 points in three days of trading can be called anything else. Welcome to the jungle. S*** happens. Nothing has happened in the last three days that will hurt corporate profits and earnings season is only 6-8 weeks out. Expect a volatile stock market between now and then. As long as you are not a day trader, buying stock on margin or need the money to pay the rent, I doubt there is much cause for real concern at the moment. The second S3 reports a profitable quarter the stock will start trading above book again. It will most likely gap up so fast that traders won't get a chance to play it. S3 would have to loose in the neighborhood of $3-$4 per share in revenue before they would be even close to being in trouble. They would have to report 0 revenue for a year for that to happen. It isn't possible. Computers are reaching the point where they are almost as common as TVs. Maybe more common, considering most offices don't have television. When Dell, Compaq and IBM go out of business, I'll get worried.

Savage has been getting top scores at a price the competition can't touch. If S3 can show any kind of marketing expertise at all, the chip should sell well. Last quarters sales is what's been killing the stock price, along with market conditions. Although I personally feel that it is out of proportion to reality, it really isn't necessary to look beyond that for an explanation of the recent downward bias.

The Nikkei is up 262 points after bouncing off nearly a 500 point drop, other Asian markets are down, but well off their lows. My guess is we'll see a drop in the Dow in the first hour of trading, then a hard bounce. The market is way too over sold to maintain this kind of downward pressure.

Regards,

Don