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Politics : Clinton -- doomed & wagging, Japan collapses, Y2K bug, etc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SOROS who wrote (23)	9/4/1998 9:12:00 AM
From: SOROS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1151

Global Intelligence Update Red Alert September 3, 1998 Indonesia Faces Potential Famine Already pummeled by the general Asian economic collapse and the downturn in crude oil prices, Indonesia is facing yet another crisis -- impending famine. The Indonesian newspaper "Kompas" reported on August 28 that rice supplies in Rengasdengklok, Jatirage, Plumbonsari, and Cilamaya are depleted. The South Sulawesi logistics board reportedly has 10 months' supply of rice on hand, while in Bali, the rice supply situation will reportedly be "critical" in four to five months. Kompas cited Agriculture Minister Soleh Solahuddin as attributing the rice shortage and accompanying price rise to speculating farmers who were hoarding rice in an attempt to drive up prices. Soleh reportedly warned that "famine might occur between October and December, in which case the logistics board would implement a large `market operation.'" Indonesia's official "Antara" news agency reported on September 2 that failed harvests and distribution problems threaten thousands with food shortages. Antara reported that "about 1,800 people in West Java province have already run out of rice, and another 84,000 are in danger." After receiving aid shipments from Thailand and China, East Kalimantan province reportedly has a three month stockpile of rice. Antara added that the provinces of East Nusa, Tenggara, East Timor, and Irian Jaya also face food shortages. The situations in East Timor and Irian Jaya are already unstable, as both have active, militant separatist movements. Compounding the crisis, Indonesia's economic woes forced Jakarta on September 2 to cut subsidies and eliminate import duties on sugar, flour, and soybeans, effective immediately. Announcing the decision, Industry and Trade Minister Rahardi Ramelan said "there will be no more subsidy and monopoly. We will leave it to the market mechanism." Ramelan blamed farmers for setting the high sugar prices, and said that "the rise in the inflation rate is mostly caused by these basic commodities." Subsidies currently remain on rice and cooking oil, but Agriculture Minister Soleh said on August 26 that a rise in the price of rice was "inevitable." The sudden lifting of fuel subsidies earlier this year sparked riots throughout Indonesia. The lifting of food subsidies just as shortages set in can lead to no better. Indonesia is receiving some food aid from the United States, Australia, Japan, Germany, Norway, and other countries and international organizations, but with China and perhaps Russia soon to face food shortages as well, it is questionable as to whether or not sufficient aid will be available to forestall civil unrest. With famine poised to compound the country's existing economic collapse, Indonesia's foremost question is whether the army, and therefore the country, will remain intact through the ever-increasing crisis. Its second question is, what regime will the country see next? President Habibie is a non-starter. Indonesia's two most likely options are a Suharto-style kleptocratic dictatorship or a Sukarno-style charismatic, nationalist dictatorship. As the former is the freshest failure in the public's mind, and as recrimination for the country's economic woes is already falling on the Chinese minority, the second option is the most likely. It is not a healthy time to be a foreigner in Indonesia.