To: SOROS who wrote (24 ) 9/7/1998 9:09:00 AM From: SOROS Respond to of 1151
Electronic Telegraph - London - 09/06/98 By Philip Sherwell HELMUT Kohl owed his improbable electoral victory in 1994 to support from the east - now the former communist region seems set to end his 16-year reign as chancellor. His ruling conservative coalition is slowly eroding the Social Democrat lead in the opinion polls as a lacklustre campaign heads for a cliffhanger finale. But easterners have turned against the "father of unification" who helped to liberate them from communism and gave them the Deutschmark. Their volatility is likely to open the door for the Social Democrats' Gerhard Schr”der to replace Europe's longest-serving leader. "Kohl has lost the east," a former adviser to the Chancellor said last week. "It's almost 10 years since the changes. Gratitude does not last long or count for much in politics. They have had enough of him." Despite the economic ravages that the region suffered after unification in 1990 as bankrupt factories closed, Ossis (easterners) stayed loyal to the Chancellor in 1994 to re-elect him. But the latest opinion polls show that, despite a recent revival, his Christian Democrat-Christian Social Union alliance is trailing the Social Democrats by more than seven per cent in the east. Catcalls and whistles have accompanied his campaign trips through eastern Germany. It was his reception in Leipzig last week that brought home the changes. More than 250,000 people jammed the streets when Mr Kohl made his first visit in May 1990 to the birthplace of the peaceful revolution that toppled the old communist regime the previous year. His rally last week attracted about 10,000. Indeed, the jeers and chants of "liar" and "Kohl must go" often drowned the cheers and applause of the faithful. For Irene G”tz, it brought back memories of rather different protests. "This is how it all started in 1989. Except that then they were chanting 'Honecker must go'," said the pensioner, referring to the demonstrations against the then East German leader. "I was all for Kohl and I voted CDU in 1994. But I won't be doing that again. It's time for him to go." His speech did little to enthuse the crowd as he dwelt on the past: two world wars, Nazi and communist dictatorship, and unification. In his one encounter with Mr Schr”der during the campaign, a televised parliamentary debate on Thursday, the Chancellor harked back to "16 very good years" and sought to make political capital out of the Russian crisis by playing on his record as an international statesman. But the SPD candidate dismissed him as a man stuck in the past and said voters had priorities other than Russia. In east and west, the Chancellor is seen as too old (he is 68) and too long in the job. "Kohl will be remembered as a man who outstayed his welcome," said the ex-adviser. "He showed a sense of history in 1990. But now he has forgotten his history. Nobody can reign forever." In eastern Germany, there is also a feeling of betrayal. When Mr Kohl portrayed himself as a modern miracle worker and promised "flourishing landscapes", they believed him. Many feel that he deceived them. Quite a few disillusioned voters say they would still vote Christian Democrat if a younger man was at the helm. Senior CDU politicians say privately that they wished that the Chancellor had handed the reins to his lieutenant Wolfgang Sch„uble, a wheelchair-bound but energetic 55-year-old. Last week the two men attempted a show of solidarity after appearing at odds over whether Mr Kohl would serve out a full term if he won this month. The SPD's Mr Schr”der shed crocodile tears as he watched the spat from the sidelines. But the Chancellor is motivated by the taste for history that he developed after unification and then championing the single European currency. He insisted on a crack at an unprecedented fifth term to oversee the birth of the euro on Jan 1, the Government's move from Bonn to Berlin later next year and the millennium celebrations. The concerns of most easterners are rather more mundane. Although German unemployment has fallen by 600,000, the tally still exceeds four million (about 11 per cent of the population). The regional figures show the true national divide: at almost 18 per cent, the jobless rate in the east is double that in the west. The depressed industrial district of Plagwitz in Leipzig brings home the scale of economic devastation. The streets are lined with derelict factories and warehouses, their windows broken. A handful of small businesses and shops has moved in, but otherwise it is a desolate sight. Infrastructure in the east has been hugely improved thanks to giant cash transfers from Bonn. But for all the money and changes, Ossis still complain that they are second-class citizens. Even the clash of personalities - the dynamic, youthful Mr Schr”der versus solid dependable Mr Kohl - is failing to enthuse the electorate. It is little wonder that opinion polls show that more than a quarter of voters are still undecided just three weeks before the ballot. The Chancellor's last chance is to win over the waverers. It seems a forlorn hope.