Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Graham who wrote (15235)	8/31/1998 6:55:00 PM
From: AlanH	Respond to of 42787

Bob, I agree on the ride down... The "average" household -- which has markedly increased it's market participation in 10 years -- has been conditioned to expect relief, receive reward. It will take time before behavior modification takes hold. IMO, what's more likely is that the individual will initially respond by turning down the pump. That is, "Well, I won't sell my portfolio, I'll just be more careful with 'new' dollars." Despite how obvious this sounds, I don't think it's happening in any real sense. (There's a troubling possibility that true 'panic selling' will be delayed to a point where buffers have eroded.) Another behavioral scenario is that the Smith's continue attempts to catch up with the Jones'. And, the Jones residence -- a perceived model of investment acumen -- says, "Hey relax, I've been through this before. The Big Guys are just trying to psych us out. Look I've been doing this for 10+ years... remember the '87 crash... of course! Give up now? NO WAY." All of this speaks to the individual investor (as it should). For institutional panic to be in place, IMO we'd need to see a much steeper decline in $INDU. This would be an intermediate result of broader liquidation -- and, a sentimental cause for further panic. Sound cyclical? <g> Good luck with the computer. -Alan