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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (4291)	8/31/1998 5:21:00 PM
From: Yogi - Paul	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

From Briefing.com--- Seagate Technology Inc. (SEG) 18 1/2 -1 11/16: Gruntal & Co. maintains "hold" rating on disk drive maker as entering the quarterly pre-lease period; pricing environment continues to be aggressive for 4GB and below capacities; price, and not higher capacities is still the demand driver for the second half of the year..... Anyone have the full report? Yogi

To: Sam who wrote (4291)	8/31/1998 7:39:00 PM
From: LK2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

GM, Sam, Stitch, Yogi, LK, all. A couple of nice posts from Rudy on the APM thread. I'm not saying this is the strategy for anyone to use. But it is a strategy that some people try to use. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> www3.techstocks.com Talk : Short-Term : APM To: WTMHouston (12584 ) From: Rudy Monday, Aug 31 1998 6:27PM ET Reply # of 12587 >What is past, is past. The real question now is: Are we done and is this now a buying opportunity.< Problem is IMO it is not "past" yet. I would never buy into a falling market with a lot of technical damage but it is me. I do not believe in the "long run" strategy. Why shouldn't I get out if I can in the face of a down momentum and sit and get back when the momentum reverses? I do not claim that I'll be able to locate the bottom correctly but if I can buy back within 20-25% (upwards) of a bottom (on individaul stock basis) I can make significant gains. Just the fact that a 50% fall requires a 100% comeback to breakeven justifies my strategy. >One month ago, we would have all been chomping at the bit to be able to buy almost any stock at today's closing prices.< Agree but that is all deceiving because of the new momentum investing craze. It cuts both ways. Up up up, or down, down down. They all value as much as the next guy is willing to pay for, no more or no less. For a long term outlook (say 2-5 years the least) you are right. What you pick here will probably look great 2 years later that is if your picks are solid companies with a proven track record (IBM's, the Intel's, the Dell's). But for the short term what if we fall more? I would rather wait for a basing pattern and an upward breakout to recommit cash. At that point our entries may be the same (yours on the down, mine on the up). The difference is that I'd have kept my options open and been more flexible than your committed position. >Reality will catch up, IMO.< Reality has taken the back seat in a world haeding more towards virtual reality. Everything is sliding more towards virtuality. Market took its share. Was AMZN trading at 150's real? If it gets trashed down to 20 would it be real? What price would really tell you the value of AMZN? When the rate of change is accelerating, nothing is stable anymore. That makes evaluating companies harder than ever. That's one reason momentum investing has gained tremendous popularity in the last decade. >I am not a technical guru by any stretch, but this has to scream oversold!< This is another unimportant indicator IMO which lost its importance. Oversold-overbought. AMZN was overbought from about 56 to 150 but that did not stop it. Same way it can be oversold down to 10 who knows. Again momentum investing is shattering all known rules of trading/investing. Anyway, it's been long. Troy, this is just my strategy. There could be 1000 different ways to make or lose money in the markets. I just put my thouhts without any offense intented. Best wishes. ======================== www3.techstocks.com Talk : Short-Term : APM To: marc chatman (12586 ) From: Rudy Monday, Aug 31 1998 7:24PM ET Reply # of 12587 >Has the market ever seen a major correction, bear run or blow-off where the averages haven't at least made a serious retest of the lows?< I cannot answer this from my own experience :-). At least on the overall market basis (on individual stock basis, I can). From what I read and heard from respected technicians, the answer is no. Technicians (from experience and study of history) say that any major break needs to retest its lows before a meaningful rally and also has to make a new high to consider as a "recovered market". So what we need here according to technicians is a rally to a lower high, and then a retest of the low (whereever that would be) and then another rally to new highs. Now the dimesions, the width of the movement, length of it (time) will be determined by outside effects, probably overseas and psychology. Technicians do not look at reasons. They look at supply and demand. From my individual experience with stocks, breakouts (up or down) most of the time retest the support/resistance levels. That's why it is recommended to commit 50% of your planned buy in the first breakout and then commit the next 50% at the confirmation (retest and bounce back). With that logic it may not be smart to sell (or buy) into these panic runs. Smart investor sells into the rally if the overall picture looks grim (like now). It looks to me shorting the next rally is lot less risky than buying into it. Dow is testing support at 7550 now. Even if it finds support, my best bet is it'll move between 7550-8260. We acquired a lot of resistance lately. It'll take time to forget these wounds even if all outside effects clear out. I do not wanna sound all bad but I just think it is looking really ugly from the technical perspective. I believe usually fundamentals justify the technical picture shortly after (insiders move out earlier than outsiders :-)). Maybe some global concerns are worse than we can think and foresee. Guess that we'll see soon. Take care. <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<