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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D & G who wrote (25885)	8/31/1998 5:57:00 PM
From: RangeRover	Respond to of 94695

I agree with you,Everyone here does a excellent job on input...Have learned alot today myself......I also probably made a mistake by selling puts at close.....Live and learn... Chris

To: D & G who wrote (25885)	8/31/1998 10:12:00 PM
From: P.Prazeres	Respond to of 94695

DJF, Thanks for the kudos. It's nice to know that someone is listening. Do I think there will be a bounce? YES. the trick is to wait for it and then (if you feel like gambling) short down to the previous low. The real trick is to find the top of the eventual bounce. However, things still look very ugly after today. Trying to pick the bottom takes nerves of steel. For instance, let's say the bottom is here (for this wave of selling , anyway) and you chose to go long to "enjoy the bounce"...ie, in at Dow 7540. What happens if this wave of selling goes below 7000 and the bounce only goes to 7400? That's why I think waiting for the bounce is a better strategy...many of the "rallies" are very short lived right now and how do we know whick one will produce the 5 to 8 % bounce. NEW LOWS were 1174 on the NYSE, that is, about 30% of the NYSE stocks traded at a new 52 week low today....THAT IS STAGGERING!!! Yet, the ARMS index only reached 3 today...some panic selling but not the like seen last Oct 27th (ARMS reached ~22 that day, a classic buy signal, if there ever was one). This time it's going down without too much panic, yet. Like I said less than one month ago, this is much worse than October or any other "correction" in the 90's. We are getting the big cap confirmation of the bear market and it is also taking all others with it, i.e., Russell 2000 down some 23% this year... When I see some market "strategists" on CNBC this evening saying that the drops are relative to impressive gains over the past few years, I feel that a great disservice is being done. (BUT they don't want to instill fear right now). OK, want another problem. Monthly mutual fund statements go out this week...what happens when many get their statements and find that they just lost 15%+ in August???? The real problem is that a domino effect could really go into effect here, however, I think the FED would step in to prevent that. Believe me, Rubin and friends are working late tonight calling many CEOs encouraging stock buybacks, etc. A single day 1000+ drop is not out of the question right now. The solution (as I've been touting for who knows how long)...reduce interest rates to spur more consumer demand around the world...this will hamper the deflation caused by the overcapacity of manufacturing, etc. (Obviously, more complicated that this but the general idea is conveyed) That's it for tonight. Paulo PS, it is tempting to get into HD, KO, CSCO, TXN, etc, etc right now but I probably won't go long until the NEW lows drop to the double digits...