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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jean1057 who wrote (4035)	8/31/1998 10:42:00 PM
From: lws	Respond to of 27311

Hi, Jean Claude, But you don't agree with FMK. You are very cautious in comparison. You estimate the chances of success at only 90%, while FMK estimates them as no less than 99.8%! But you do sort of split the difference between his 99.8 and my 75%. Sorry, couldn't resist:-) Still, the differences encourage me to go ahead with laying out my reasons for my own estimate. The point of all this is to bring together all the factors which will bear on Valence's future over the next few years. Because of the drama of Valence's current struggle with production and finances, in recent months we have tended to think about Valence in a vacuum. We have tended to think that if Valence could just get into production, all would be well and we'd be rich. We need to begin thinking more carefully about Valence not as an R&D firm, but as a producer within a market. Assuming it survives this pre-production period, its place within the market will determine its ultimate "success" and the fate of our investments. (I speak as a long-term investor; not as a trader...) Finally, I agree the small uptick in Valence's price today was an encouraging sign in light of everything else. It was my only holding that rose today! Regards, lws