Swiss America E-News Update - 8/31/98 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
COIN CYCLES by Earl Brown, Senior Numismatist, SATC
Little did I know when I would go to the bank in the 1950's and 60's to get rolls of pennies, dimes, quarters, and halves, that collecting coins would lead to a vocation. Back when mercury dimes and Indian head pennies could occasionally be found in loose change and slipped into my blue book to aid my collection, times were simpler. Major crime in my neighborhood was breaking curfew or the occasional classmate caught shoplifting. No Y2K. No "Monica Lewinsky." No knowledge of "New World Order." Naivete at times can be bliss.
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Retail Rare Coin Price Update as of: August 1998
Mint State 64 Liberty $ 1,410.00 Mint State 65 Generic Morgan Silver Dollar $ 130.00 Proof 66 Barber Quarter $ 3,525.00 Mint State 63 Generic David Liberty $ 805.00 Proof Type Gold Proof 65 Generic $11,800.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gold, Silver, and Platinum Update By Pat Mershon
Gold Spot Closed Friday 8/28/98 at $274.1 per ounce. The one-year, monthly moving average is $299.75.
Gold Technical comment: For the past year Gold has attempted to hold the lows of January 1998 at $277.10 an ounce. It failed. At this time, the monthly one-year moving average is the primary overhead resistance. The bottom for Gold is unknown, but I feel we are close at this time. With the exception of the last nine months, gold has only closed below $300.00 an ounce 22 times (21 in February 1985 and once in June of 1982) since it closed above the $300 mark in August of 1979.
Gold comment: Stocks, because of the last nineteen years of steady, consistent increases have been favored over all other investments, including Gold. But now, with the stock market most likely having reached the peak of our lifetime, that may change. When you step back and look at the world and see terrorism, the Asian crisis, the Russian crisis, the Y2K crisis, and the Stock market crisis, to mention but a few, you can't help but become frightened. I don't know about most people, but for me owning gold, purchased at any price, gives me a sense of security while living in this unstable world. I want to be like all of the big countries of the world who, when they turn to their neighbors in times of trouble, that as long as they have Gold, their neighbors are always willing to help. Much like them, I know that if I have Gold and the world falls apart, I too can use my Gold to pay my neighbors for the help I need.
We have seen many examples of this throughout history, most recently in Korea. Let's not forget our history lessons. In troubled times great amounts of wealth have moved into the historic safe haven of Gold. Let's face it, in stock the dividends don't amount to much compared with what you pay to get them. The only reason to own stocks is if they continue to increase significantly in price and people, that period is over. Presently, stocks are unbelievably over priced and our economy slowing. We are unlikely to see a return to a bull market for some time to come. It is my belief that even though Gold may move slightly lower, it is crazy to try to pick the bottom. Gold is depressed because it is not in the public eye at this time, only the stock market is. In the past that has always been a good buying opportunity. Remember that Gold will always have a place, in a nation or an individual portfolio, as the asset of last resort. For safety sake, allocate a portion of your portfolio to Gold.
Silver Spot opened Friday 8/28/98 at $4.62 per ounce. The one-year average is $5.67.
Silver Technical: The technical picture is difficult with Silver at this time. Prices are again depressed and I can't recommend selling at these depressed prices unless the money goes to an asset similar in nature. I always like to buy silver when it's depressed, much as it is now. Always buy Silver why the public has no interest in it. That's the way I have always made money with it. Silver has spent little time below $5.00 in the past twenty years and there is good reason for that.
Silver comment: Silver did not hold the recent rally, but that presents us with a favorable opportunity, which is to buy silver at a low price. Let's face facts. Silver stocks are extremely low. Copper prices are off, which equates to less copper produced, and that means less Silver as a byproduct. George Soros is buying into silver mines (Apex Silver Mines Limited). This is the man who can wreck a country's currency, and he's buying silver mines! Let me think a moment, why would he be doing that? I'll tell you what I think, PROFIT! You've recently had another man buying 1/5 the above ground store of Silver by writing one paper check. Have you ever heard of Warren Buffet (BurkShire Hathaway)? I wonder why he did that? I think again, PROFIT! Is Silver at a favorable price to purchase? These two famous billionaire investors appear to think so.
Platinum Spot closed Friday 8/28/98 at $355.60 per ounce. The one-year average is $385.22.
Platinum Technical: Platinum is extremely choppy. It is below the one-year average and I would prefer to buy it above the average. Russian sales seem to hamper holding any gains at this time.
Pat Mershon has over 23 years in the precious metals and rare coin market. An expert Technical Analyst, Mr. Mershon has been head of operations for Swiss America the past fifteen years.
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