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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (17076)8/31/1998 8:22:00 PM
From: long-gone  Respond to of 116786
 
Swiss America E-News Update - 8/31/98
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COIN CYCLES
by Earl Brown, Senior Numismatist, SATC

Little did I know when I would go to the bank in the 1950's and
60's to get rolls of pennies, dimes, quarters, and halves, that
collecting coins would lead to a vocation. Back when mercury dimes
and Indian head pennies could occasionally be found in loose change
and slipped into my blue book to aid my collection, times were
simpler. Major crime in my neighborhood was breaking curfew or the
occasional classmate caught shoplifting. No Y2K. No "Monica
Lewinsky." No knowledge of "New World Order." Naivete at times
can be bliss.

article continued at:
buycoin.com
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Retail Rare Coin Price Update as of: August 1998

Mint State 64 Liberty $ 1,410.00
Mint State 65 Generic Morgan Silver Dollar $ 130.00
Proof 66 Barber Quarter $ 3,525.00
Mint State 63 Generic David Liberty $ 805.00
Proof Type Gold Proof 65 Generic $11,800.00
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Gold, Silver, and Platinum Update
By Pat Mershon

Gold Spot Closed Friday 8/28/98 at $274.1 per ounce. The one-year,
monthly moving average is $299.75.

Gold Technical comment: For the past year Gold has attempted to hold
the lows of January 1998 at $277.10 an ounce. It failed. At this
time, the monthly one-year moving average is the primary overhead
resistance. The bottom for Gold is unknown, but I feel we are close
at this time. With the exception of the last nine months, gold has
only closed below $300.00 an ounce 22 times (21 in February 1985 and
once in June of 1982) since it closed above the $300 mark in August
of 1979.

Gold comment: Stocks, because of the last nineteen years of steady,
consistent increases have been favored over all other investments,
including Gold. But now, with the stock market most likely having
reached the peak of our lifetime, that may change. When you step
back and look at the world and see terrorism, the Asian crisis, the
Russian crisis, the Y2K crisis, and the Stock market crisis, to
mention but a few, you can't help but become frightened. I don't know
about most people, but for me owning gold, purchased at any price,
gives me a sense of security while living in this unstable world.
I want to be like all of the big countries of the world who, when
they turn to their neighbors in times of trouble, that as long as
they have Gold, their neighbors are always willing to help. Much like
them, I know that if I have Gold and the world falls apart, I too can
use my Gold to pay my neighbors for the help I need.

We have seen many examples of this throughout history, most recently
in Korea. Let's not forget our history lessons. In troubled times
great amounts of wealth have moved into the historic safe haven of
Gold. Let's face it, in stock the dividends don't amount to much
compared with what you pay to get them. The only reason to own
stocks is if they continue to increase significantly in price and
people, that period is over. Presently, stocks are unbelievably
over priced and our economy slowing. We are unlikely to see a return
to a bull market for some time to come. It is my belief that even
though Gold may move slightly lower, it is crazy to try to pick the
bottom. Gold is depressed because it is not in the public eye at this
time, only the stock market is. In the past that has always been a
good buying opportunity. Remember that Gold will always have a place,
in a nation or an individual portfolio, as the asset of last resort.
For safety sake, allocate a portion of your portfolio to Gold.

Silver Spot opened Friday 8/28/98 at $4.62 per ounce. The one-year
average is $5.67.

Silver Technical: The technical picture is difficult with Silver at
this time. Prices are again depressed and I can't recommend selling
at these depressed prices unless the money goes to an asset similar
in nature. I always like to buy silver when it's depressed, much
as it is now. Always buy Silver why the public has no interest in
it. That's the way I have always made money with it. Silver has spent
little time below $5.00 in the past twenty years and there is good
reason for that.

Silver comment: Silver did not hold the recent rally, but that
presents us with a favorable opportunity, which is to buy silver
at a low price. Let's face facts. Silver stocks are extremely
low. Copper prices are off, which equates to less copper
produced, and that means less Silver as a byproduct. George Soros
is buying into silver mines (Apex Silver Mines Limited). This is
the man who can wreck a country's currency, and he's buying silver
mines! Let me think a moment, why would he be doing that? I'll
tell you what I think, PROFIT! You've recently had another man
buying 1/5 the above ground store of Silver by writing one paper
check. Have you ever heard of Warren Buffet (BurkShire Hathaway)?
I wonder why he did that? I think again, PROFIT! Is Silver at a
favorable price to purchase? These two famous billionaire
investors appear to think so.

Platinum Spot closed Friday 8/28/98 at $355.60 per ounce. The
one-year average is $385.22.

Platinum Technical: Platinum is extremely choppy. It is below the
one-year average and I would prefer to buy it above the average.
Russian sales seem to hamper holding any gains at this time.

Pat Mershon has over 23 years in the precious metals and rare coin
market. An expert Technical Analyst, Mr. Mershon has been head of
operations for Swiss America the past fifteen years.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Real Money Perspectives Newsletter (electronic version) is a free
service of Swiss America Trading Corporation (http://www.buycoin.com).

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Y2KNet Online: y2knet.com

rh



To: Broken_Clock who wrote (17076)8/31/1998 8:29:00 PM
From: PaulM  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116786
 
Papaya, regardless of what gold volatility brings us in the next year-- and we will begin to see volatility, gold will be boring no more--PEI's belief that the dollar is king because Ronald Reagan was president 10 years ago is not worth taking seriously.

PEI also bases its view on the alternatives--a crumbling Japan and the introduction of he Euro, which Armstrong thinks is exteremley risky.

What PEI fails to consider is why the Europeans--whose monetary conservatism has causes the DM to outperformed the dollar consistently for 30 years--would take on this type of risk unless they had to. It is precisely the fundamental WEAKNESS of the dollar, the world's reserve curency, that is shaping Euro politics.



To: Broken_Clock who wrote (17076)9/1/1998 12:47:00 AM
From: Alex  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116786
 
Creditors Mull Seizing Russian Assets

"There is no one here to negotiate with."

Some western creditors are believed to be considering seizing Russian banking assets held overseas, in retaliation for the country's 90-day moratorium on some forms of debt. Others may challenge the legality of the moratorium in the international courts.

Western creditors are pressing the Russian government to lift the moratorium on local entities repaying foreign debt obligations. They claim the payment freeze is harming many individual borrowers and the country's overall reputation in international financial markets.

Banking analysts suggest the moratorium affects more than $700m of syndicated loan payments that become due within the 90-day period, as well as an estimated $10bn of forward dollar contracts.

On August 17, the government froze foreign debt repayments as part of the government's anti-crisis measures.

The logic was that Russian banks would have 90 days to sort out their collective liabilities and renegotiate payments where necessary, thereby preventing a systemic collapse of the banking system.

The central bank invited foreign creditors to a meeting in Moscow the following week and asked them to form a committee to discuss the repayments issue. But bankers involved in these talks said they had made little progress.

"As far as negotiating with anyone here is concerned there is no one to negotiate with," said one banker. "There is no government, the central bank is in hiding, and we are waiting to see what if anything happens on the political front."

Max Gutbrod, a partner at Baker & McKenzie, the US law firm which represents several foreign creditors, said some foreign banks had begun to challenge the legality of the central bank's move because there had been no official instruction introducing the moratorium.

"There is no likelihood that things will be any better in three months when the moratorium ends and all that will have happened is that the difficult task of sorting out which are the good banks and which are the bad ones will have been postponed," Mr Gutbrod said.

The central bank has begun taking action to restructure the banking industry and is encouraging a string of mergers, which could produce bigger and better-capitalised banks.

It is pressing parliament to approve legislation to nationalise SBS-Agro, the biggest commercial retail bank, although this move has been opposed by the bank itself.

Margot Jacobs, a banking analyst at United Financial Group, a Moscow-based stockbroker, said some solvent Russian entities were seeking to make repayments in defiance of the moratorium. Such banks did not wish to harm their future credit ratings.

She forecast that the moratorium might collapse anyway.

"I think that most western creditors believe it is not the government's position to get involved in a contract between two commercial entities," she said. "And those Russian entities that can pay want to pay."

The Financial Times, September 1, 1998