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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Worswick who wrote (6051)	8/31/1998 8:23:00 PM
From: Michael Sphar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

AMZN down 20+% today! Bigcaps melting. I think its safe to call this a bear now. More to come, maybe another 6 months. I think the turn is in January. Transports down severely, institutionally driven downturn, when they come back to the market I think they will be bargain shopping for overlooked stocks, not necessarily the old favorites of yesterday. Other than that how the heck is the rest of the world today/tonight? Is HK gonna fade again or will the MA stand in front of a moving train?

To: Worswick who wrote (6051)	8/31/1998 8:27:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

I agree. Here's Japan down below 13,700, supposedly the point where banks and insurance companies start to become insolvent. Although I am heavily on the short side of the US market, I have had so many disappointments over the last 18 months that it is easy to resist euphoria this time. The Globex seems to show up movement, for the US, but that could be residual speculative activity by those who underestimate the unease spreading among US investors. There may be very large shifts from equities to money market funds. or to bonds, because of the recent capital gains there. Calm assessment of dividend yields, P/Es, and book value suggests a US market at no higher than 3500-4000 at rational valuation. And overshoot in a panic could take it a lot lower, especially if earnings are simultaneously lower and dividends are cut or eliminated. What about Korea? Is there any justification there for Templeton's sanguinary hopes last December?