To: Rob S. who wrote (15468 ) 8/31/1998 8:29:00 PM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
Special MarketCentral Report We will be writing a special market report in this section on a periodic basis to update you on the latest market developments and outlook. In the meantime, we will be completing the official MarketCentral newsletter and will inform you of our premier issue if you register on the MarketCentral Newsletter Home Page. You can also view The Eakle Report, Bob Bose's Weekly Updates, The IPO Report and Stock Site's Daily Market Newsletter through MarketCentral. Special Market Report For August 31, 1998 When we last wrote our Special Market Update last Thursday, August 27th, 1998, we didn't anticipate writing another update this soon. With the Dow Jones Industrial average getting hammered an additional 512.61 points to close at 7539.07 we felt it necessary update our market analysis. As our last update stated,ÿ we felt the market was close to what is called capitulation and were looking for a severe market selloff with the last diehard bulls selling their shares in a panic. Today's stock market selloff certainly qualifies as a sign of capitulation with the Nasdaq declining a record 140.63 points with all gains for the year on the major indexes now at losses. Today's market action centered on the higher quality issues such as Lucent Technologies as fear has now firmly taken hold with traders and investors becoming increasingly worried about world financial markets, earnings momentum, price-earnings ratios going forward and the deteriorating technical condition of the market. It is at times like these that one must step back and take a broader view of what has happened. From March through the beginning of July, the stock market's internal dynamics continued to deteriorate with the broader market struggling to advance while the blue chips continued to rise. During the early stages of this decline most of the price damage centered around the secondary stocks with the blue chips and higher quality stocks remaining relatively firm thus masking the internal deterioration of the market. As we had been reporting, our internal technical indicators remained negative and even during the recent rally phase we witnessed increasing negative internal dynamics. Investor sentiment at the highs above 9000 continued to be a buy every dip mentality and investors were advised to ignore the dips and to continue to purchase shares during every minor selloff. We are now approaching the opposite side of the coin with shares being sold out of fear and sentiment turning extremely bearish as analysts are now projecting even lower prices and have finally advised selling some shares to raise cash. While we had recommended lightening up before this major decline, we feel it is now getting pretty late in this decline to panic with the crowd. In fact we are now looking for signs of a market bottom. However, other than some of our oscillators that measure an oversold market turning bullish the overall technical deterioration has continued. Nontheless, many market bottoms occur during maximum negative technical readings and this may be what we are now experiencing. In order to be certain of this, we would need to see the end of this decline and then a countertrend rally leading to a successful test of the panic lows that would that would set up a significant intermediate term advance. The best strategy to employ at this point is a wait and see attitude on the broader market. Panic selloffs can go to extremes and with the price earnings ratio and all standard measures of market valuation still at historically overvalued levels we need to see the technical condition of the market strengthen before turning bullish. Investors can purchase those shares that represent quality stocks that have declined as a result of the panic selloff so long as they take a longer term view and do not become aggressive purchasers as downside risk still remains high. We will provide another Special Market Update should conditions warrant. Roy Spectorman