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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (51284)	9/1/1998 12:06:00 AM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

don, our old nemesis, the MSH, is 28% off its high. I guess it's safe to say that techs have "cracked". weak laughter. Also, I guess techs are well within the range defining "tech bear".... I've concluded that I can come to the correct conclusions on some things, but that I always lack enough patience to see my deepest convictions through. It's been that way so many times. So now here is my "next thing": I predict that the lowly RUT will arise from the ashes of disrespect and begin to come back into favor. Reason: Small companies are least exposed overall to the economic wreckage around the globe. Certainly some of them do have export business, but these smaller companies will either quickly go out of business or else change their product. But the clincher is this: the big multinationals are now hobbled by foreign infrastructure which will be a millstone around their necks. And there have already been quite a few gems in the RUT: companies growing their earnings at steady 15-20% and more, with PEs that languish in the 11 range (as mentioned in this week's Barrons). We'll see how it plays out. But I don't for a minute believe that the USA is headed for the kind of economic and currency wreckage we see in developing free-market nations like Russia, and newly developing third world countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, etc. The bottom line is that the US banks are very conservative compared to the rampant reckless lending we saw for example in Indonesia. And the US govt knows how to collect income taxes: Don't we all know that who are subject to US tax! Russia on the other hand has very poor tax collection system.