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To: DebtBomb who wrote (2801)9/1/1998 7:16:00 AM
From: ChrisJP  Respond to of 119973
 
Hi Dale,

Elliot Wave is very complicated and I'm no expert, but here is the concept: The psychology is simple -- there are three waves. Wave 1 is the trend setting wave. The trend is still uncertain. Wave 2 is major wave when most people become believers in the trend and the basis for trend is confirmed. Wave 3 is the greed wave. This is when prices get ridiculous.

Looking back 1982 - 1989 was probably Wave 1, 1989 - 199? was Wave 2, and 199? - July 1998 was Wave 3.

We are now in Wave 1 going down. This doesn't mean there won't be rallies. But does anyone on this thread really plan to buy on the dip and hold till we break new highs ? I didn't think so. Proof that we are in Wave 1 down. Wave 2 should take us down to the 5500 - 6000 which is still in line with the DOW's long term up-trend line. Wave 3 .... ?

As for 401Ks, if people haven't done so already, when we fail to even approach the old highs, they will begin to adjust their asset allocations more and more to cash. I'm pretty sure it has already started in the sense that new money has been adjusted to go more into cash/bonds.

Regards,
Chris