Global Intelligence Update
September 1, 1998
Key Russian Army Units Reportedly Placed on Alert
Citing a "highly positioned source at the Defense Ministry," the Russian
newspaper "Komsomolskaya Pravda" reported Monday that commanders of the
Tamanskaya and Kantemirovskaya Divisions and the Tyoplyi Stan Brigade, all
stationed near Moscow, as well as the Tula, Ryazan, and Tver Divisions,
have been ordered to "prepare themselves for extraordinary situations."
Officers have reportedly had their leaves canceled, and the units have been
ordered to increase their guard on ammunition, food, and fuel stockpiles.
Komsomolskaya Pravda also reported that acting Defense Minister Igor
Sergeyev had assured Russian President Boris Yeltsin of the troops' loyalty
during a recent meeting. Additionally, the newspaper reported that the
Interior Ministry had been ordered to prepare to "act under extraordinary
circumstances" in Moscow, should civil unrest arise. Finally, the
newspaper reported that Russia's Federal Security Service, the successor to
the KGB, is monitoring the situation in Moscow and the Far East for any
signs of destabilization.
Despite Sergeyev's alleged assurances of loyalty, the idea that Yeltsin can
rely on the military to come to his aid as it has twice in the past is far
from certain. Others are calling for the army's support as well. On
Monday, Russian Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov called on the army
and law enforcement agencies to defend against any attempt by Yeltsin to
disband the parliament. In a speech before the Duma, Zyuganov said, "I am
appealing to all people, especially those who wear uniform. The last
island of little legality which still exists in the country is here in the
Duma and the Federation Council. If it is finished and destroyed, then
chaos and gangs will prevail."
Still another possibility was posed by retired General Alexander Lebed, who
declared in an interview published Monday in the French newspaper "Le
Figaro," that "The army is in a revolutionary mood." "In what mood do you
think the army is when officers have not been paid for five months?" he
asked. Lebed concluded that "The government could collapse in 24 hours.
Everybody is fed up." He urged support for acting Prime Minister Viktor
Chernomyrdin, who he insisted was the only person with even the slightest
chance of averting Russia's collapse. The Duma later rejected
Chernomyrdin's appointment.
The Russian Army has been as battered by the country's economic decline and
collapse as has the rest of the population, and has been reduced to
scavenging in preparation for the coming winter. Soldiers are frequently
seen begging in Russia's cities, as months can pass between paychecks,
which are as inadequate as they are rare. More than 150,000 discharged
soldiers await promised housing, and Komsomolskaya Pravda has reported that
worthless housing vouchers issued to Baltic Fleet officers have driven them
to the brink of mutiny. Isolated acts of rebellion have already occurred.
In one incident in July, a major in central Russia reportedly took to the
streets in a commandeered tank to protest unpaid salaries. Despite
promises by Chernomyrdin to pay overdue military salaries, acting Defense
Minister Sergeyev has ordered all ranks of commanders to "look for
additional sources [of sustenance for the winter] and assume personal
control." Orders have reportedly been issued to all soldiers and officers
to take to the fields to harvest mushrooms, berries, and other sources of
food for the winter.
During the failed coup attempt in 1991 against then-President Gorbachev by
hard-liners, and again in the standoff between Yeltsin and hard-liners in
the Duma in 1993, the Russian Army either stood aside or stood by Yeltsin.
However, in both cases, popular opinion was largely on Yeltsin's side. If
asked to defend Yeltsin against overwhelming civilian opposition, the army
this time is likely to step aside. With almost no support for Yeltsin,
either in or outside of Russia, the army has little to gain by turning Red
Square into a Tienanmen Square for him. Furthermore, as the army rank and
file share the economic grievances of masses, the Russian General Staff
will wish to avoid situations that could force divisions in the ranks.
___________________________________________________
To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates
or Computer Security Alerts, sign up on the web at
stratfor.com, or send your name,
organization, position, mailing address, phone
number, and e-mail address to alert@stratfor.com
___________________________________________________
STRATFOR Systems, Inc.
3301 Northland Drive, Suite 500
Austin, TX 78731-4939
Phone: 512-454-3626
Fax: 512-454-1614
Internet: stratfor.com
Email: info@stratfor.com
|
