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To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (51298)	9/1/1998 5:00:00 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Dwight; RE:" N225 " >btw, Nikkei closed up over 200 pts... yeah, noticed that, Dwight - DAX orbiting ~4700, about -2.5% down. They appear to be reacting to the SPOOs indicating ~150+ point open on the DOW. USD still weakening. >Were you calling for a global depression in July ? No, Dwight - I was not. I was beginning to suspect that the commodity prices (going down) were indicating some kind of fundamental changes. In July, we had four legs holding the market (indices) up: TechStocks, DRG.X, RLX.X and NF.X=BKX.X/IUX.X/XBD.X sectors. I saw the financial sector leading the indices down from mid-July, but I did not react in any way until they broke their UpTrend Lines - which surprised me. My essential concern (today) is the RLX.X - Retail sector, Dwight. I suspect that employment has peaked, so I expect retail and discretionary spending, disposable income to decline from here. Should we lose the American consumer, I don't think we will have enough "legs" for the market to stand on. Anyhoo - oversold is understatement (!) and we scalp the bounce, sell into any rally, n'est-ce pas ? -Steve

To: Dwight E. Karlsen who wrote (51298)	9/1/1998 9:20:00 AM
From: edward miller	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Dwight, I have read several times that people are using their stock winnings to spend instead of investing it for the future. Although I am not crazy enough to do that myself I know of people who do, and I wonder what explanation you have for how they will continue to spend lavishly as in the past. This is an example of people with more money than brains. Where do you think the Beanie Babies craze comes from? Why are people building lavish homes that really stroke their egos but they honestly DON'T NEED. The same goes for the "Supersized" sport utility craze. What gas hogs! Sure the price of gas is low now, but this is a temporary phenomenon. If you were to reflect a bit, I am sure you could identify other instances of general public financial insanity. This is not behavior in normal times, this is manic behavior based on the assumption that the good times will never end. This down market casts doubts on the upcoming Christmas season. Many people will be pulling in their spending because they have enough sense to realize that next year they may be out of work. You don't have to be a stock market wizard to see the recession coming. The reduced profits don't show up until the bad quarters are in the books.