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To: TTOSBT who wrote (63721)	9/1/1998 8:40:00 AM
From: nihil	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

RE: No bear with low interest I'll give you a bear market -- the Johnson-Nixon Market .. Year....DJIA.......S&P500.....T-bill 1966....995.15.....94.06.......4.96 1970....842.00.....93.46.......4.87

To: TTOSBT who wrote (63721)	9/1/1998 9:22:00 AM
From: GVTucker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

<<There never was a recession, bear market or projected downward momentum in the stock market while interest rates were below 7% current interest rates are 5.26%>> That is false. In fact, prior to the inflationary 70's, interest rates in the US were never above 7%. In every bear and recession prior to the 70's, rates were well below 7%. At the top in 1929, rates were below 5%. At the top in '37, rates were below 4%. At the top in 1920, rates were around 6%. I '62, rates wee around 4%. In each case, a greater than 20% drop occurred, which is the traditional definition of a bear market. Similarly, if you pick any recession that occurred prior to the mid 70's recession, every one began with rates below 7%.